MY PREDICTIONS FOR TODAY'S VOTE
It doesn't matter who you vote for, or why. It doesn't matter if your vote is for one guy, or against another. What does matter is that you take the time to go stand in line in a school, or a courthouse or a community center, and pull the lever, or push the button, or slide the card.
I come from a region of this world where voting can get you killed. Where there are small patches of democracy, there is usually only one name on the ballot with a "yes" or "no" option. In this great country, our vote can control almost every circumstance surrounding our lives. I'll vote tomorrow, even though there is no chance that my vote (be it for a Republican or Democrat) would vote a Dem into office or keep a Republican out. That's just the way Idaho is.
There are a lot of quality candidates on both sides. Though I am a strong and active member of one of the parties, I understand that an unchecked party can do a great deal of damage. Look at what the Democrats have done to Washington D.C., and see what Republicans have done to my Idaho. Without all the bickering and posturing, the people lose.
I care who wins, but come Wednesday, I'll be happy that the the American people chose their destiny yet again regardless of who holds the gavel.
That's what being an American is all about.
Okay --- Here are my predictions. Please note that this is not based on my party affiliation or how I want it turn out; it's simply what I think is going to happen.
1. Other than the East and West coasts (and the towns and cities that follow the Mississippi), the United States is generally a slightly right-of-center nation. Though these "fly-over" folks are mad as heck at the Republicans, their fear of (in their minds) a Pelosi led congress will stop any tsunami before it starts. In the end, Americans don't want to get blown up, and they realize that they haven't gotten blown up in five years. The Republicans lose 17 seats and just barely lose the House. The Republicans will hold the house if: all the anger voiced to the pollsters is more "hot air" than real dissatisfaction, that Republicans really won't turn their back on their party and vote for the opposition to prove a point.
2. The Senate will be a different story. The Democrats will have to run the table on all the close contested races in order to capture the Senate. In the end, the Republicans will come home and vote for Talent, Allen, etc. And although no poll shows it, I think Steele is going to win in Maryland. The Republicans lose 3 seats but retain a majority.
I don't think that taking over the House is going to help the Democrats in the long run. If the Republicans continue on into the presidential elections in 2008 controlling all branches of government, the voters will be really really ready for change and will likely sweep the Democrats into power. But if the Dems have the house in 2008, I think voters will be more apt to give Republicans another shot at the White House, especially if there have been terrorist-related attacks against U.S. interests.
I'd appreciate your leaving a comment telling me how you think the elections will go. It will be interesting to see how close we get to the final result.
It'll be just like when I was president -- democrats have the house, republicans have the senate.
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