[September 28th] -- The Nationals' fourth season in Washington has come and gone. It was to be a season of promise and hope, perhaps the bridge year between a last place team and a contender. Though I took much of the season off from blogging, I watched the team just as closely as in years past. Though it was a difficult season to watch, there was much promise and hope shining through the cracks of the team's foundation.

I have been wondering why, since the first day the team arrived in Washington, that there have been so many writers, bloggers, and fans who seemed to root for the Nationals to fail. While naysayers exist in other baseball towns, they aren't as many, nor as loud. Scribes from the Times and Post seem to revel in kicking the team when they are down, almost proudly proclaiming that the Nationals are a failure and aren't deserving of our time and money.

But they aren't the only ones. Bloggers sound a lot like my wife at times, underscoring the negatives while overlooking the things done well. Many posters at BallPark Guys and other message boards attack with the ferocity of those last 300 Spartans, willing to fight to the death in order to disparage the Nationals for succeeding generations. The attendance is too low. The prices are too high. The players aren't good enough. Certainly, there are kernels of truth in most of what they say, but why do they take delight in saying it?

Because that's how we are in Washington. Virtually every person who lives inside the Beltway is so political that it's not enough for their guy to win, the other guy has to be torn down and embarrassed in the process. If the Nationals aren't playing well, then every part of the Nationals is maliciously attacked. The team loses a game at home and sure enough, someone is complaining that the signage in the new park is lousy. We have learned from all those elected or brought in by those that are elected how best to hurt those we disagree with. Sarah Palin's daughter really gave birth to that Downs Syndrome baby, not Sarah herself. And though Republicans know that Barak Obama isn't a Muslim, that doesn't stop them from unearthing an almost unlimited supply of Indonesian documents that say he is. We just don't go after Jim Bowden; we have to attack his fiance, his drinking habits, etc.

Look, I love the Nationals. I'll agree with the team on somethings and won't agree on others. But all this clap-trap we read every day is baseball's version of negative attack ads, designed to keep the uniformed from coming to the ballpark or watching them on television. I worry that even when the Nationals begin to win and win big, there will still be that large group of naysayers who enjoy hurting that which the rest of us waited 34 years to have, big league baseball in D.C.

Were the Nationals bad in 2008? Sure, they just lost their 102nd game and now have the top pick in next year's amateur draft. But how bad, or good, would they have been if they could just have remained healthy? Lets look at what might have happened, based on the team's starters playing a full season:

1B: Nick Johnson: .260-25-90

2B: Ronnie Belliard: .287-17-65

SS: Cristian Guzman: .310-9-55

3B: Ryan Zimmerman: .283-26-110

LF: Elijah Dukes: .270-26-90 (25 SB)

CF: Lastings Milledge: .270-16-80 (27 SB)

RF: Austin Kearns: .250-13-60 (worst case scenario)

C: Jesus Flores/Paul LoDuca et. al.: .265-14-55

That, plus a healthy pitching staff and the Nationals would have won 75 games, plus or minus.

The Nationals had a tough season, but for justifiable reasons.

Time to look ahead to next season.

# posted by . @ 2:30 PM 1 comments links to this post

[April 11th] -- John Tudor was a pretty darn good major league pitcher. He won 117 games over twelve seasons with a very sharp 3.27 ERA. I was living in St. Louis when he was traded to the Cardinals from the Pirates in a four player trade that featured George Hendrick going to Pittsburgh. Though I thought it a good trade, I saw Tudor nothing more than a #3 pitcher. Over the previous two seasons, he went 25-23 with an ERA in the mid threes. I expected another near .500 effort in 1985. When he began the year 1-7, 4.40, I figured the 30 year old just wasn't that good. Cardinal fans were screaming for Whitey Herzog to get him out of the starting rotation. The St. Louis Cardinals were just too good for him.

Then something interesting happened. He found the flaw that was causing the problem and fixed it. Over the remainder of the season, Tudor went 20-1, 1.44, and led the Cardinals into the World Series against the Kansas City Royals. In his last five seasons (injuries cut short his career), the southpaw went 44-18, 2.78. In his first six years, he was just 69-54, 48-46 if you don't count that turnaround year in 1985.

The point is, he showed no real promise early in his career; he was a .500 pitcher and looked like he would always be just that. Then he had some sort of epiphany, and he finished his career as one of the best pitchers in the Major Leagues.

# posted by . @ 1:16 PM 2 comments links to this post

And they didn't. After nine games, they're 3-6.

Much, much better. Good job, guys.

Seriously, globally, the Nationals have yet to make me want to push the panic button. Individually, however, there are some concerns. Why is it, for example, that Jason Bergman can look like Bob Gibson for the first four innings and Hoot Gibson thereafter? And is Austin Kearns ever going to become a powerful right-fielder? Come August, they could ultimately become two of the Nationals' best players. I'm just saying ......

Each year, all of us take a look at the team's roster and predict what could happen. The problem is that our predictions are based on what the players could do and not what they probably will do. For example, here was my predictions for the '69 Senators (I know, I gotta start throwing some of this stuff away):

1B: Mike Epstein - .285-25-100

2b: Bernie Allen - .260-7-50

SS: Eddie Brinkman - .240-5-45

3B: Kenny McMullen - .260-25-90

LF: Frank Howard - .300-40-100

CF: Del Unser - .285-8-60

RF: Hank Allen - .277-13-65

C: Paul Cassanova - .250-8-45

No one prediction was off by much, yet as a group, these players (with Lee Maye replacing Hank Allen in right) really didn't come close because I assumed the best case scenario for each player. Now, take a look at my predictions for this year:

1B: Nick Johnson - .285-20-80

2B: Ronnie Belliard - .280-13-60

SS: Cristian Guzman - .270-5-45

3B: Ryan Zimmerman - .300-30-100

LF: Wily Mo Pena / Elijah Dukes - .270-25-90

CF: Lastings Milledge - .285-23-85

RF: Austin Kearns - .265-24-85

C: LoDuca / Estrada - .270-12-55

Again, each individual prediction seems reasonable, but as a group, I've probably guessed too high. Come October, three of these guys will probably do better, three will do worse, and two will do about what I figured.

And if that happens, the Nationals aren't going to have a great season.

Around the Minors: Michael Burgess his hitting just .200 for Hagerstown but has already hit two homers. He's struck out 9 times in 20 at-bats (ouch!). Bill Rhinehart continues to surprise. After hitting .299-5-43 for Vermont last season, he's at .318-1-6 in 22 at-bats for the Suns. The problem is Rhinehart is the same age as Ryan Zimmerman and is still playing 'A' ball. Andrew LeFave (also 23), obtained in the Ray King trade last year, is hitting just .083 in 2008. He has a career .348 career average in two minor league seasons.

# posted by . @ 9:41 PM 0 comments links to this post

[April 6th] -- Yeah, another bad game. Sure, the Nationals have now lost four games in a row after winning their first three.

No worries.

Any of us who went into 2008 with a "counting wins" perspective might be in for a very long summer. The team is still building and in some cases, still guessing as to who will - and won't - make a difference in the coming years.

We still have to look for stories-with-the-story to get a true sense of the team's progression towards respectability.

Like John Lannan's effort in an otherwise dismal 3-0 loss to the (not much better than us) St. Louis Cardinals.

Lannan, who was clearly the best Nats' starter in Spring Training, gets called up from Columbus and is asked to stop the team's three-game losing streak. Well, the Nationals lost, but he was about the most blameless player in a blue hat on Sunday.

Lannan pitched 6.2 innings, giving up 7 hits, 2 runs while striking out 4. Sixty-three percent of his pitches went for strikes and he left the game with a rather nifty 2.70 ERA. So, I'm thinking, what else does this guy have to do to become a permanent member of the Nationals' rotation? No question, he's still going to have his ups and downs, but let's give him some experience at the major league level so he'll be ready to make a difference next year, when things could really be fun.

But Lannan wasn't the only Nats' lefty to impress on Sunday.

Ross Detwiler was lights-out in his first start of the year for the Potomac Nationals. Detwiler (who pitched only 33 innings last year) threw 5 shutout innings against Salem, allowing just 3 hits and a walk while striking out 7. "A man among boys" was the way the Salem Avalanche broadcaster described the situation.

I understand that Jim Bowden wants Detwiler to succeed before promoting him, but if he's not going to be challenged in Potomac, send him north to Harrisburg.

So we've got these two guys - both young, both 6'5", both 200 pounds - and both will be ready to help the Nationals in 2009. But there is someone else who could be ready to make a difference as well.

Mike O'Connor, another [fairly] young, tall lefty.

O'Connor was the only one not considered to be a future major leaguer, and yet he has pitched extremely well both in spring training and in his first start with the Clippers, allowing just two hits and two walks while striking out four in five innings. Remember, before he was injured, he was one of the Nationals most consistent starters in 2006. In his first 12 starts - through the end of June - O'Connor had a record of 3-4, 3.39 in 12 starts, allowing just 49 hits in 58 innings while striking out 45. Over his next four starts, O'Connor gave up 22 runs in 15 innings (13.29 ERA) and ended the year 3-8, 4.80. I think it safe to assume that's when his elbow problems began.

So if O'Connor reverts to form - and perhaps he already has - and can once again get major league batters out, the Nationals could be sitting on a treasure trove of left-handed pitching, especially if Matt Chico's second start was an aberration.

Time will tell.

Let's get back to Matt Chico for just a second. Though his numbers didn't look very good in that first start in Philadelphia, and nothing looked very good against the Cardinals, there are still some very positive signs for the kid. Sure, he's given up 14 hits and 7 runs in 11.1 innings, but he's also struck out 9 and walked just 3. That's 7 strikeouts and 2.4 walks per 9 innings. Last year, he averaged 3.98 walks per 9 innings and just 4.75 walks per 9. He still gives up too many hits, but - regardless of his numbers thus far - he seems to pitching much better in 2008.

This-N-That: Felipe Lopez has started four straight games and the Nationals have lost four straight games. Coincidence? Probably. His defense in left wasn't bad at all - much better than Alfonso Soriano at first - but he continues a downward spiral with his bat. He's now batting .188 (3-16) with a .278 OBP and 5 strikeouts. Certainly, it's a small sample, but I'm not seeing any value here, both trade and on the field .... After a slow start, Ryan Zimmerman has raised his batting average to .290 with 6 hits over the weekend. Amazingly, he has cut down his strikeouts this year, fanning only 3 times in 31 at-bats (once very 10.3 at-bats). For his career, he's struckout once every 5.2 at-bats .... Paul LoDuca has looked really bad at the plate so far (.167) but he's yet to strikeout. I thought this to be an aberration, but no - LoDuca has excellent plate discipline. Over his career, he's averaged just 43 strikeouts per 550 at-bats .... Has anyone else begun to moan and groan when Willie Harris (1-12) comes to the plate? .... It's obvious that Joel Hanrahan wouldn't continue to pitch as well as he did this spring, but really, he's not too far away. Though he has a 6.00 ERA, he's given up just 2 hits in 3 innings while striking out 5. I think Manny Acta is very pleased with his work so far.

Labels: uestion

# posted by . @ 2:36 PM 0 comments links to this post

[April 4th] -- I thought it prudent to wait to begin blogging about the 2008 season until after the Nationals lost a game. It was important to lose a game in Philadelphia. All too often, teams that start 4-0 or 7-0 begin to press so hard to keep their streak alive that when they finally lose, they really lose. Case in point (though it's a much larger sample) was the Nationals' 2005 season when they - either through luck, or smoke or mirrors -started the season 50-31 and rolled into the All Star game in first place. They didn't have the offense, or the defense, or the pitching, to have won those many games in the first half. I think we all felt that sooner or later, things would resolve themselves.

Lastings Milledge (CF) - .289-24-75

Ryan Zimmerman (3B) - .290-30-110

Nick Johnson (1B) - .280-20-90

Austin Kearns (RF) - .270-24-88

Pena/Dukes (LF) - .265-25-75

Ronnie Belliard (2B) - .275-13-55

LoDuca / Estrada (C) - .270-10-50

Matt Chico: 12-11 4.22

Tim Redding: 13-8 3.66

Jason Bergman: 11-9 3.88

Shawn Hill: 10-5 3.44 (assuming he returns in time)

So it's not like any success O'Connor might have this year would come as a surprise. He's already had success - good success - at the major league level. If he returns to form, the Nationals could then have five - count 'em, FIVE - major league caliber pitchers at the AAA level.

Who said that all that pitching help is years away?

First Impressions of 2008:

• Jason Bergman (8.84) and Matt Chico (5.06) don't have very impressive ERA's, but I think they both pitched well in their first outings of the year. One of Chico's three runs given up came via a mistake by Lastings Milledge in the outfield, and another run was a one-pitch mistake that was hit for a homer. And Jason Bergman was lights-out for five innings before he tired and lost command of his pitches. His new change looked good. I'll bet that both of these guys will end the year with 10-12 wins and an ERA near 4.00.
• Even though Ryan Zimmerman is batting just .167 and has just three hits, the Nationals could easily have a record of 1-3 without him. Had he started this way in 2005 or 2006, I'd be worried. No more. He's proven he's a stud.
• I have no idea if Odalis Perez will ever pitch that well again for the Nationals this year, but boy, I hope he does.
• How stupid will the Nationals look if Jesus Flores is hitting .350 or so when they send him down to Harrisburg to "get better?" All he did in his first game was go 3-4 with 2 doubles.

# posted by . @ 10:02 AM 1 comments links to this post

[January 18th] -- First, sorry I haven't posted in a while. Daily posting was number two on my New Year's resolution list, but the real world isn't a perfect place in terms of allowing said resolutions to be fulfilled. We have been given the opportunity to adopt our special-needs foster son. We've had him since he was a month old (he's almost 3 now) and - assuming the paperwork goes through - it looks like he'll become the newest member of Nats' Nation. Any of you who have gone through the process knows how difficult - and time consuming - it can be.

That said, we're thrilled at the opportunity.

On to baseball.

How good will Michael Burgess be? Your guess is as good as mine, but if you use his stats in the Gulf Coast League this past year as a yardstick, he should do very well indeed.

I was looking up a player on the 1994 GCL Expos and noticed Vlad Guerrero's first year stats. They were impressive, and from there he matured into one of the most feared hitters of his generation. But let's take a look at his numbers compared to Burgess' when extrapolated out to 550 at-bats, a full Major League season. See what you think:

1994 - Guerrero: R:98 -- H:176 -- 2B:53 -- 3B: 12 -- HR:20 -- RBI:102 -- BB:44 -- K:73 -- Ave:.314 -- OPS:.928

2007 - Burgess: R:94 -- H:184 -- 2B:26 -- 3B:13 -- HR:34 -- RBI:137 -- BB:107 -- 159 -- Ave:.333 -- OPS:1.059

The two players had very similar first years, though there were some differences. Guerrero's power wasn't as developed as Burgess. Vlad had 27 more doubles but 14 less homers. Burgess walked a lot more though he struck out more often too. Guerrero's .366 OBP was very good but pales in comparison to Burgess' .442.

I'm not suggesting that Burgess is the next Vlad Guerrero. What I am saying is that Burgess has the potential to be a great player. After being initially over matched when he was promoted to Vermont at the end of the season, Burgess found his stroke and did well in 19 games. Again, based on a full season, Burgess produced: .286-24-80.

Looks like the Nationals' outfield will be even more crowded in the very near future.

Certain Uncertainty: Usually, a baseball team heads into spring training with a few question marks and a good deal of certainty. For the Nationals, the offense is so questionable that it could be one of the better, or one of the worst, offenses in the National League. As of today, Ronnie Belliard is about the only "sure thing" in the lineup.

Will it be Nick Johnson or Dmitri Young at first? And if it's Johnson, will he come close to repeating 2007's numbers?

Will Felipe Lopez rebound from a poor 2007, or for that matter will he even start? He'll be playing in a smaller park this year so if he does rebound, a .275-18-60 is not out of the question. And if he doesn't rebound, will Cristian Guzman play enough defense to make his offense palatable?

It may seem strange to list Ryan Zimmerman as a question mark, but really, no one knows if he'll have another "nice" year, something like .280-25-100, or will he have that breakout year we've all been waiting for, say .310-35-120?

Wily Mo Pena has the talent to hit .280-45-120. But will he? And if he doesn't, will Jim Bowden settle for .260-22-75 or will Pena be benched in favor of Elijah Dukes, another player who may - or may not - hit 35 homers and drive in 100 RBI's. And what of Lastings Milledge? As the only real center fielder among the bunch, Milledge has more opportunity to grow slowly as a starter than the others. But he's already hit at the Major League level, so a .285-25-85 effort would surprise no one. And Austin Kearns has shown the ability to hit 25 homers and drive in 100 runs, but he just can't seem to do it year in and year out. Based on past history, 2008 will be the year he shows up and plays well every day.

Paul Lo Duca is perhaps the biggest question mark with the least importance; it really won't matter if Lo Duca hits well or not. He just has to catch the ball behind the plate.

The Nationals could end up hitting 200 homers, or they might barely break 100. Spring Training won't tell us anything, but we'll know something by July 1st.

# posted by . @ 5:23 PM 4 comments links to this post

[January 4th] -- When the Nationals took 3b/1B Matt Whitney in the recent Rule V draft, most of us wasn't sure what to make of it. Certainly, he had a great year in 2007, batting .299-32-113 at Cleveland's version of Hagerstown and Potomac. But with only 400 minor league games under his belt, did the Nationals really think he was ready to play at the Major League level? And with that kind of production, the Nationals must know that if he doesn't make the team, the Indians would likely jump at the chance to reclaim him for just $25,000.

And to make matters worse (for Whitney), the Nationals brought in Aaron Boone to play backup at both third and first.

The Nationals picked Whitney because he was, at one time anyway, referred to as the Indians' "next Manny Ramirez."

Whitney was chosen by the Cleveland Indians in 2002 out of high school with a supplementary 1st round pick (number 33 overall), gained by the loss of free-agent outfielder Juan Gonzalez. He was considered one of the best pure power hitters to come out of high school that year. In 45 games with Burlington (Rookie A), Whitney batted .286-10-33, an amazing power display for that level.

He was on the fast track to Jacobs Field. That is, until the following spring. Playing a game of pickup basketball at the Indians Spring Training facility in Chain of Lakes Florida, Whitney broke two bones in his leg when he stepped on a sprinkler head. He underwent two different surgeries immediately and another one later that spring, wiping out his entire 2003 season. Nationals fans understand that broken legs don't heal very well -- just ask Nick Johnson.

He returned to the diamond in 2004, though he was never completely healthy over the next three seasons, batting .230-21-96 in a combined 225 games. He struck out 275 times in 816 at-bats. He was forced to walk, and run, awkwardly because of the pain in his leg, which led to other injuries in his back and neck.

No one, then, was expecting the breakout season in 2007. Whitney says it was due to being healthy for the first time since 2002 as well as a whole lot of hard work and preparation. Kinston manager Mike Sarbaugh says that in addition to his good health, he shortened his stroke in 2007 and is now recognizing pitches much better. "Last year, he head a tendency to chase some breaking pitches out of the zone that he's not doing this year (2007)".

Indians' farm director Ross Atkins said that "not having your legs in any sport is not good, especially if you're a power hitter." Whitney can now - finally - plant his leg and drive the ball deep.

The Indians moved Whitney from third to first last year to reduce the stress on his bad leg. Whitney had played both first and the outfield during high school, so the move seemed natural. Though he committed a league high 20 errors at first, the Indians were convinced that Whitney would be a solid first-baseman at the Major League level.

Whitney, a 6'4", 220 pounder, bats right-handed and hits with a lot of power. That said, the 24 year old also strikes out a lot. He struck out 38% of the time at Kinston in 2006, though he was able to decrease that number to 22% last year.

If he remains healthy, Whitney could be a solid power hitter in the future. In his two healthy seasons, he would have averaged .296-32-110 over a 500 at-bat season. In his three injury plagued seasons, those same 500 at-bats would have produced only .258-21-81. Looks like he just might be a "player" one day.

So if Whitney doesn't make the team next spring, and the Nationals don't want to offer him back to Cleveland for $25,000, the only option left is for Jim Bowden to make a trade, sending a prospect to Cleveland so the team can send Whitney to Harrisburg and let him continue to mature. What will he cost? Something along the lines of a Glenn Gibson I would guess, the cost of obtaining Elijah Dukes.

One thing's for sure, though. If the Nationals can keep Whitney in the system, they'll own the two best first baseman in the South Atlantic League last year, Whitney and Andrew LeFave.

Either way, it'll be interesting to watch Whitney next spring.

# posted by . @ 11:48 AM 0 comments links to this post

[January 2nd] -- Sigh. January 2nd is always a depressing day for me. After seemingly day after day of holidays and fun and food, the real world - and all its problems - returns. Unless you're a student or a banker, the next holiday is in May. And that is a long, long time away. Guess all we can do is concentrate on baseball and the upcoming season.

The Nationals roster seems more up in the air to me that it did this time last year, which is weird since the team brought in, what, 40 starting pitchers into Spring Training? I can live with the uncertainty at catcher (how much time is Jesus Flores going to get?) and first (gee, Nick Johnson is hurt?) but this whole outfield thing is bothersome. Unless something changes in the next couple of months, the Nats are going to arrive in Viera with four starting outfielders, of which only one - Austin Kearns - has ever played in the big leagues on a consistent basis. The other three, Wily Mo Pena, Elijah Dukes and Lastings Milledge, all deserve the opportunity to play every day based on what they've shown over the past couple of years (Dukes' .190 average doesn't particularly bother me). But the outfield glut doesn't stop there. By the end of the year, the Nationals might have two more guys - Chris Marrero and Justin Maxwell - who might deserve the opportunity to show what they've got, and another - Michael Burgess - who just might be the best of the lot, could be less than a couple of years away.

So what's the team going to do?

I wouldn't have a problem with the Nationals going north with those four guys if even one of them was a lefty. There are too many outfielders who are all right-handed. That's not a good thing regardless of how well they all hit.

At this point, I have to believe that just three of the four are going to make the team.

Left: Wily Mo Pena: Jim Bowden has been after Pena for too long, and he's too cheap, and too talented not to play every day, and he's proven in limited action that he can produce if given a chance. With the Nationals, he would have hit .293-32-88 in a 550 at-bat season. There is no reason to believe he can't do that in 2008. At the very least, the Nationals have to let him prove that he can, or can't, be a real slugger at the major league level. At 26, he is still young and hasn't reached his potential. I'm not even sure anyone knows exactly what his potential is. .280-40-120? Quite possibly.

Center: Lastings Milledge: Again, Bowden has lusted over Milledge, in his case since his days in high school. The only thing that kept Milledge from have outstanding numbers in 2007 was limited playing time. Based on a full season, Milledge would have hit .272-21-87. He'll be 23 next year and might be another player the Nationals build around. He's not going to be a slugger, but he will likely blossom into a .285-27-90 type player. He has to stay too.

Right: Austin Kearns: Yet another of Bowden's "boys." Kearns is the question mark in the Nationals outfield, but he has several things going for him. First, he plays the game right. Second, he's still cheap, though that's going to change in the coming years. And third, he's due. The Reds bandbox inflated his numbers while with Cincinnati, and RFK deflated his numbers since he's played in Washington. The new park should be just about right for Kearns. I wouldn't be surprised if Kearns finally becomes the offensive player that we all expected in 2008, hitting .270-25-90 or so while playing a superb right field.

That said, I think Kearns is a year away from a big trade. He'll be 28 this season, and will see his contract jump from $5 million in '08 to $8 million in 2009. My guess is that the Nationals will trade Kearns, perhaps package him with a prospect or two, and get a significant starting pitcher to help with a playoff run in 2009. That would leave right field available for ......

Elijah Dukes: Of the "fab four," playing Dukes at Columbus for a year makes the most sense. Though Dmitri Young is his designated mentor in Washington, I'm sure the team can find someone to watch over him at 'AAA.' Sure, he would have hit 31 homers and walked 103 times in a full season last year, but his .190 average shows the need for seasoning. Rather than force him to become an angel at the major league level, why not let him grow up in a less threatening, less volatile atmosphere?

I believe that the kid can become a decent person and superb player. The photos at the top of this post are of Dave Parker. While with the Pirates, he was a bad boy, perhaps the baddest of all. There is a picture of him smoking a joint in the dugout of a Spring Training game in the early 1970's. He drank a lot, fought a lot, and scared a whole lot of people. Tired of the troublesome outfielder, the Pirates shipped him and his declining skills off to the Reds, who told him to shave, shape up and stop screwing around. He had three of his best years with Cincinnati before ending his career with the Athletics.

The point is, if Dave Parker could turn himself around, so can Elijah Dukes.

With Kearns traded for pitching, what could this outfield produce in 2009?

Pena: .275-35-110 ---- Milledge: .300-28-90 ---- Dukes: .280-38-110

I know, if if if if if. But that is certainly better than Ryan Church, Nook Logan and Austin Kearns, right? Add those three guys to Ryan Zimmerman and [hopefully] Nick Johnson, and the Nationals have at least the chance of chasing a playoff berth.

But for now, at least, let Dukes play in Columbus, baseball's version of a Borg maturation chamber.

I don't demand that the Nationals contend in 2009, but I do demand that they at least have the opportunity to -- assuming things go there way.

Now, this entire exercise in guessing who goes where doesn't address the predominance of right-handed batters in the Nationals' lineup. I don't have an answer, though I am truly worried that Jim Bowden is perfectly willing to field this out-of-balance lineup. Rob Mackowiak was a great addition to the outfield and certainly can fill in against the nastier right-handed pitchers.

That said, without a few lefty hitters that we can count on, it's going to be difficult to field a productive offense night in and night out.

Coming up next: an in depth look at Matt Whitney. His is a particularly interesting story.

# posted by . @ 7:06 PM 1 comments links to this post

[December 10th] -- Just when we think we know what's going to happen, Jimbo surprises us.

Over and over again.

After Barry Svurluga suggested that the Nationals were close to signing Paul Lo Duca last week in Nashville, he (and the team) backed off when it appeared that the Toronto Blue Jays were willing to give him a 2-year deal. Suddenly, the Nationals seemed ready to ride the E-train (as in Johnny Estrada) into the new park.

A few days later, it's Lo Duca.

Really.

Lo Duca, 35, is a Arizona State University grad who jumped onto the scene as a rookie with the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2001 when he batted .320-25-90 with a .917 OPS. It goes without saying that he never again came close to producing those type of numbers. No one expected him to succeed like he did; he was a 29 year old rookie who spent his first 8 years as a professional in the minor leagues.

Why did he choose the Nationals? As Sally Field might say, "he liked us. He really really liked us."

While there has been no specifics from the Nationals, most seem to believe that Jesus Flores will remain with the team, catching 30 or so games next year. That doesn't make a bit of sense to me. Either play the kid 130 games and let him learn on the job, or send him to Columbus and let him play there every day. Flores isn't some 19 year old who has years to learn his craft. He's 23 and he doesn't want to end up being as old as Lo Duca was before he becomes a starter at the major league level.

Having Paul Lo Duca as the team's starter for a year neither hurts, nor helps, the Nationals. He's a stop-gap, nothing more. What worries me is this: What's better -- a losing team full of nice, decent guys, or a winning team full of schmucks?

I have very strong memories of 2005, that Jeckyl-and-Hyde season, where Jose Guillen's antics were often the lead story in the local papers. If you listened closely, you could hear the hail of hosannas that were shouted throughout the Beltway community after Guillen became a Seattle Mariner.

No, Paul Lo Duca isn't a bad guy, but he's certainly not a family man either (to the consternation of his wife). Lastings Milledge isn't a bad guy, but it's going to be a few years before he matures into an adult. Elijah Dukes? He could be a bad guy -- he could be like Sloth on The Goonies, chained to a chair in the basement in the new park, allowed out of his dungeon only to hit long homers for the Nationals. And Tyler Clippard? His photo in a Yankee uniform makes him look like an All-American boy, but his nude MySpace pic (cropped just so to hide his dangling participle) tells a different story.

Lastings Milledge + Elijah Dukes + Tyler Clippard + Aaron Boone - Brian Schnedier - Glen Gibson - Jonathon Abeldegado (or whatever) - Ryan Church = what? Good? Bad?

There is no doubt in my mind that the Nationals are a better team today. If everyone does what they are capable of, and if Nick Johnson returns at 100% as he swears he now will, then this is a particularly potent lineup:

1B: Nick Johnson - .285-25-90 or Dmitri Young: .285-15-80

2B: Ronnie Belliard - .275-14-60

SS: Cristian Guzman - .250-5-40

3B: Ryan Zimmerman - .295-28-110

C: Paul Lo Duca - .275-8-50

And these four outfielders - if given the chance to start - could produce as well:

LF - Wily Mo Pena - .270-35-90

CF - Lastings Milledge - .285-25-90

RF - Austin Kearns - .270-24-85

?F - Elijah Dukes - .250-35-90

That's a good lineup if - IF - there are no surprises in terms of injuries and continuity. There is a decent chance that this lineup could help lead the Nationals to a near .500 record in 2008, assuming of course the starting rotation continues to grow and mature.

But will the team be loved? Will 2008 become StarSearch or Star Wars? Will there be a Dr. Smith in the clubhouse sabotaging our Jupiter II? Will every headline include words like "Fight" or "Clubhouse Cancer" or "Arrested?"

While I doubt this will be the case, I still worry that Nationals' might be reminiscing about the "good old days," the days of Jose Guillen.

TRIVIA: Lastings Milledge got his name because his parents decided he was to be the last child they would have, hence "Lastings."

That's cute, right?

# posted by . @ 12:52 PM 1 comments links to this post

[December 6th] -- Looks like things are winding down in Tennessee and we're beginning to get a better idea of what this team is going to look like come Opening Day.

Or not.

Four outfielders for three spots, three infielders for two spots, three first baseman for one spot and a Rule V draftee who plays third base and has to stay with the team the entire year - or else - .....

See? Aren't things clearer, now?

And the great majority of the team's starting lineup are right-handed hitters.

I'm seeing this team - at least right now - as a jigsaw puzzle with too many pieces; no way you can fit the pieces together until the extras are removed. I know less about this team, about Ryan Zimmerman's injury, about everything, than I did a week ago.

One of my neighbors owns five Kia Spectras, one for each of his driving-age family. It looks very strange over their in his driveway - the colors are all similar - but that doesn't stop his family from getting to where they need to be every day. It looks strange, but it works. Same applies to the Nationals, at least as they are presently constituted. There are a bunch of Kia Spectras on the Nationals right now, all about the same color, all with about the same accessories and mileage. Will my neighbor ever buy a Honda or a Chrysler or a Ford? Maybe. Will the Nationals get rid of some of their spare parts - mostly righties - and create some balance?

My years of baseball experience (my first baseball game featured some guy named Maris) tell me that Jim Bowden is just too smart to take this team into the new stadium March 30th.

My guess is that this was only the beginning, but that the end might not come until Spring Training, maybe later.

Right now, I can only pick one certain starter, and he might not be a certainty if his hand surgery turns ugly (remember how we were told that Nick Johnson would be ready for Spring Training '07?). Nick or Dmitri? Ronnie, Felipe or Cristian? Ryan or Aaron? Wily Mo or Lastings or Elijah or Austin? Flores? Who knows???

Thanks, Jim. You've certainly cleared everything up.

# posted by . @ 11:27 AM 1 comments links to this post

[December 6th] -- I dislike uncertainty with a passion. Take the Nationals' outfield as currently constructed, for example. Four starters for three positions. It is almost inconceivable that any of these four players won't start come April, yet someone is going to sit on the bench - or even more possible - spend part of the season at the 'AAA' level.

Austin Kearns isn't going anywhere anytime soon. He is considered one of the nicest and most decent players on the team. It wouldn't look good for the Nationals for Kearns to be playing in Kansas City or St. Louis when his replacement, Elijah Dukes, gets locked up for yet another indiscretion. Prediction for 2008: .270-25-85

And Wily Mo Pena isn't going anywhere either. He just signed a contract extension (2 years / $7 million) and is considered by most (me included) to be the only real slugger among this group. Besides, Jimbo loves him just like he loves Austin Kearns. Nope. Barring some reverse-epiphany next spring on his part, Pena is the Nationals' anointed slugger. Prediction for 2008: .267-32-100

So who's going to play center field?

Elijah Dukes is a center fielder. He's a 6'2", 235 center fielder. He's a center fielder built like a fullback. Now, sure, he only hit .190 in 184 at-bats last year, but to be fair, he had a few things on his mind. Playing a full year, he would have hit 30 homers and 65 RBI's. Interestingly, he was also on pace to walk 100 times, giving him a .190 batting average along with a .318 OBP; a very strange combination. Defensively, he didn't make an error in 52 games. What could he do if given the opportunity to play every day? Well, if he does what he did last year but raises his batting average to .250 or so, he'd likely hit 35 homers, drive in 100 RBI's and walk 100 times.

Isn't that enough to earn him a starting position?

Lastings Milledge is a more compact 6'0", 190 lbs. His 2007 numbers were better than Dukes. Interestingly, both Milledge and Dukes had 184 at-bats last year.

Dukes: .190-10-21 / Milledge: .272-7-29. He made four errors last year. Milledge will likely hit for a higher average with fewer homers but about the same number of RBI's assuming they bat in the same place in the lineup. Playing a full year, Milledge would have hit 21 homers and drove in 99 runs. Pretty impressive.

So which one starts? One (Milledge) is ready to play everyday. Dukes might be ready, might hit 40 homers but also might end up in jail.

I believe Jimbo when he says all four will compete for a starting job next year, but really, the only players doing the fighting will be Dukes and Milledge.

And I just can't say at this point as to which one I want to win.

I'm very happy with the Tyler Clippard trade; in fact, I think the Nationals received far more in value than they gave up. Jonathan Albaladejo did a fine job at every level for the Nationals last year, but remember, he was released by the Pirates earlier in the summer. Maybe he's figured "it" out, but maybe he hasn't.

Clippard has given up 10.5 baserunners per 9 innings during his minor league career, a very very good number. Even better, he fans 9.5 batters per 9 and crafted a very impressive .236 batting average-against.

Certainly, his 3-1, 6.33 record with the Yankees isn't stunning, but it is deceiving. Heading into his final two starts, he was 3-1, 3.60. His undoing was all the walks that came in his final three starts.

He's just as likely as anyone else on the team to earn a spot in the starting rotation.

And we got him for a reliever that cost us nothing. Impressive.

Now, we just have to see what happens at catcher.

# posted by . @ 7:29 PM 1 comments links to this post

[December 3rd] -- First, sorry it took so long to get on the Dukes trade. I spent the afternoon with a 102 degree fever and my finger on the ballparkguys refresh button watching the excitement unfold.

I wrote after the Milledge trade that there was no chance the Nats would go after Elijah Dukes. Just shows how little bloggers know.

First it was Elijah Dukes for Chad Cordero. Then it was Jon Rauch. Then it was "some guy to be named later," giving the impression that we didn't give up anyone of value for the .... um .... eccentric .... no, that's not it .... mercurial .... no, that's not it either ..... oft-arrested? ..... outfielder. Of course, it ended up being Glen Gibson, one of the many young pitchers who impressed this season at rookie-level Vermont.

There seems to be two camps in the Nat-o-sphere about this trade, just like the Milledge trade but with more passion on the negative side. The "I'm cool with it" camp likes Jim Bowden's attempt to collect young, high ceiling players for relatively little cost. The "WTF" community is mad because either 1] the team seems bent on collecting all of the available baseball-bad guys or 2] "The Plan" is a cover story for the team's penny-pinching ways.

I choose curtain #3, where you'll find Jim Bowden on the phone trying to make another deal.

Look, we're not exactly dealing from a position of power yet. The Nationals are - finally - better than an expansion team but aren't anywhere near being a middle-of-the-road franchise. The only way to get better without being fiscally irresponsible is to make a lot of these high risk, high reward deals.

Fast forward three years from now. Brian Schneider is a 34 year old defensive backstop with waning skills and Ryan Church is a 32 year old outfielder who is still a very good complementary player. Hopefully, possibly and perhaps even probably, Elijah Dukes and Lastings Milledge will become near stars, combining to hit .300 with 60 homers and 220 RBI's. The Reality, however, is that one of them - and I don't know which - will become a star, a .300-35-120 kind of guy. The other will either be out of the league or little more than a Church-like complementary player. So what if the trade ends up becoming Gibson, Church and Schneider for a star that'll still be playing in 2017? That's still a pretty good deal.

So, there you go; the Elijah Dukes trade is Beltway Boys Approved.

Some believe that the Dukes' deal is a precursor to other trades that will send one of the four starting four outfielders elsewhere. I don't think so. More likely, the Nationals will head to Spring Training and tell Austin, Elijah, Wily and Lastings, "The three best players start."

Yes, I'm worried about Dukes' attitude, but then again history has shown time and time again that 'problem players' often become model citizens. Dave Parker was the biggest ***** in the major leagues in the 1970's an 1980's. There was a famous photo of him smoking pot in the Pirates dugout in Spring Training. He was traded to Cincinnati, cut his hair and beard, an became one of the most feared power hitters in the league.

So Dukes could become an all-star, or he could become an inmate. Time will tell.

How good can these guys be? Here is what these four outfielders are capable of:

Wily Mo Pena: .275-35-120 --- Elijah Dukes: .290-30-100 --- Lastings Milledge: .310-25-100 --- Austin Kearns: .270-25-90

I'm just saying .....

So far, so good. Gibson wasn't a "nobody," but we've got a guy now just like him by the name of John Lannan.

He won't be missed.

UPDATE: Shows you again that bloggers are nothing more than fans with computers. After I just said that all four outfielders will battle it out for playing time this spring, and after Jim Bowden said exactly the same thing earlier this evening, reports are now surfacing that the Nationals are shopping Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez around for a starting pitcher, someone like Mike Pelfrey. That would guarantee both newbies a starting job in the outfield and Mr. Belliard (I'm too sleepy to remember if ours is Ronnie or Rafael right now) would be the team's starting 2nd baseman (which I love, he's the team's best option there).

I'd miss Kearns; we know what he can do while the Nationals' version of the "Lost Boys" haven't done diddly yet in the majors. Come to think of it, that starting three could just as easily hit 100 homers as they could hit 40.

I dunno. That would be a little scary - and uncertain - heading into the new park.

# posted by . @ 6:16 PM 2 comments links to this post

Note: Somehow, a picture of Lastings Milledge that I placed in this story turned into an image of George Bush flipping the reader off. I can only assume that the picture I used was taken from a site that doesn't like you to use their images and was able to change the image somehow. I apoligize to those who saw it.

[November 30th] -- Wow. I didn't see this one coming.

The Nationals on Friday traded Brian Schneider and Ryan Church to the Mets for Lastings Milledge.

Now, you didn't notice it, but 15 minutes passed between these two paragraphs because I just don't know what to think about this deal. At first I didn't like it, but since virtually every Mets message board and blogsite are being scorched by angry Met fans venting about this deal, perhaps it's promising after all.

Okay, deep breath.

We all know that Brian Schneider's "up and coming" offense never came. After signing his multi-year deal in 2005, he's been a liability at the plate. His defense is good, very good, but not as good as most believe it is. If Jesus Flores can play as well in 450 at-bats in 2008 as he did in 180 at-bats last year, then the Nationals won't miss Brian one bit, though I'd think the bench will call the games, at least for the foreseeable future. Regardless, the team now desperately needs a quality veteran backup catcher.

I will miss Ryan Church. He's never played up to his potential and could easily hit .275-23-88 in New York if given a chance. Perhaps he'll play better on a bigger stage. I just wish that if he had to go, he'd have gone to another league, or division. I don't want Ryan to beat the Nationals in their new park in 2008.

Now, on to Milledge. Here's how the kid's numbers would have looked based on a full 550 at-bat season (he had 187 at-bats last year): Runs: 81 -- Hits: 150 -- 2B: 27 -- 3B: 3 -- HR: 21 -- RBI: 87 -- Ave: .272 -- OBP: 341 -- SLG: .446.

Basically, if Milledge never gets better, he's going to produce like Church did last season. Of course, he's a kid and until last year, he was untouchable.

But he's going to get better, or at least that's what Jim Bowden believes.

Here is what TSN.ca says about Milledge:

Assets: Uses an incredibly quick bat to line the ball to all fields with occasional power. He's a fast runner who can steal some bases and is a strong all-around outfielder.
Flaws: Swings a little too freely, especially susceptible to breaking stuff. Has been impatient in the past, but is learning to take some walks. His attitude has come into question.
Career potential: Can be an all-star if he keeps a level head.

Some thoughts about the trade *at first blush*

• The Mets had to trade for Brian Schnedier because they didn't have any catching prospects ready in the minors because they let Jesus Flores go in the Rule V draft to the Nationals (hee hee)
• This ends any trade talk about Elijah Dukes or Rocco Baldelli IF Milledge stays with Washington -- I would't put it past Bowden to now package Milledge with other players / prospects and make a block-bluster deal next week.
• Milledge, despite his speed, isn't considered a premium center fielder, which, if I recall, is how they viewed Ryan Church, right??
• This deal appears to free up a lot of salary which is nice as long as that wasn't a consideration in making the deal.
• I'm saddened that Church and Schneider won't be here to enjoy the new stadium next year. At least they'll have Citi Park to play in soon.

The press conference is coming up soon, so I'll write again after I get a feel for what Jimbo is thinking. Until then, If Milledge blossoms into a superstar, then it's a great deal. If he's another "toolsy player" that goes the way of Tony Blanco ......

UPDATE: Here is what a Mets blog reported about Omar Minaya's press conference:During the call, Minaya said…

He and Nats GM Jim Bowden had been discussing this deal for a while.

Schneider will be his every-day catcher.

He checked around with other clubs, and, from what he can tell, trading Milledge will not impact whether or not he can acquire a starting pitcher from another club. Milledge did not fall out of demand, it’s just that the Mets have many other desired players to complete a deal. He had a very close, personal relationship with Milledge, and it was very difficult, emotionally, to trade him.

He does not feel Milledge’s value has changed much in the last 12 months, though he is sure he’d have been worth more had he come up last year and hit more. Either way, he is very happy to get two good players.

He has always felt he needed to acquire a catcher like Schneider, who is ‘big on defensive.’ These two players give the team balance, on both sides of the ball.

Church allows them to essentially go ‘with two center fielders.’ As of now, he views Church as an every-day, starting right fielder at the start of next year, who is under control for four years, whereas Milledge is still developing, and under control for five years.

Milledge would not have been guaranteed a starting job this coming spring training, though he is very confident he will eventually develop in to a very good player.

His goal is to win a championship, and this trade helps make them better offensively and defensively.

During the call, Schneider said he is looking forward to the opportunity, and to be on a winning team and playing in New York. He looks forward to working with the pitching staff. His favorite thing is to throw out runners at second and helping the staff as best as he can.

Asked to comment on John Maine and Oliver Perez, who he has hit against, he noted that he caught Maine while in Japan, and he’s already plotting how best to work with them. He’s excited.

Schneider has text messaged with David Wright, who is excited to have him, noting that Wright is very excited to get back to work and win. He hesitated to describe himself as a firey guy, but he knows he is capable of motivating a pitching staff, and he does not intend to come in and step on people’s toes right away.

Lastly, during the call, Church said he is thankful to the team for bringing him over, and to be on a team with a year-in and year-out chance to be in the playoffs. Church is able to play all three outfield positions, and is very comfortable in right, since it is where he played during most of his minor-league career. He is very excited to be a part of New York, and be part of a team with so much talent.

More coming .....

# posted by . @ 11:03 AM 3 comments links to this post

[November 28th] --The Minnesota Twins traded pitcher Matt Garza to Tampa Bay for outfielder Delmon Young (there are other minor characters involved in the trade -- the biggest, at least to Nationals fans, is infielder Brendan Harris). I never heard rumblings about this deal yet the AP says it's been in the works for weeks.

So much for being inside-the-loop.

This trade does impact Jim Bowden and the Nationals during next week's winter meetings. What made either Rocco Baldelli or Elijah Dukes available was Delmon Young in Tampa's outfield, along with Carl Crawford, B.J. Upton and Johnny Gomes.

Young, Dmitri's younger brother, fills the hole left by Tori Hunter, meaning the Rays no longer have extra outfielders to ship to Washington. Upton and Crawford are staying in Tampa, so the question becomes who takes over the other outfield spot. Basically, they have Baldelli, Dukes and Gomes available for one position.

Gomes has showed he is a tremendous 4th outfielder but really isn't a starter, and the Rays wouldn't dare trade Dukes on the chance that Baldelli will once again not complete the season healthy, and the Rays wouldn't dare trade Baldelli on the chance that Dukes continues to have "problems."

My guess is that both players go to Spring Training as co-starters with the assumption that at some point along the way, the team will be left with just one player, be it because of injury or jail time.

I think this deal means that Ryan Church remains the team's center fielder.

And that's not a bad thing.

# posted by . @ 2:02 PM 0 comments links to this post

[November 26th] -- Hello again, everyone. Here's hoping that one and all had a wonderful Thanksgiving. Mine was a typical Idaho feast, light on the turkey but heavy on the potatoes.

Are you as surprised as I am at how little news is coming from the Nationals these days? I try to comment on what's really happening and not just make things up to fill space, so things are really slow right now. This time last year, there were a myriad of rumors that could be 1] scoffed at or 2] hoped for. I've mused over Rocco Baldelli, Elijah Dukes and the small chance the Nationals have of signing any significant free agents. And there's not much I can say about the whole relocation situation from 2,500 miles away.

So, until something happens -remember, the winter meetings begin next week -I'd like to take a moment and discuss blogging.

Someone left a message over at ballparkguys.com telling the group that Banks of the Anacostia had resumed blogging after a seven month hiatus. Personally, I think that is a great thing; jammingecono is a wonderful writer and an avid fan.

Many left messages listing there favorite blogs. Nats320, Nats Farm Authority and Capitol Punishment were mentioned as some of the best. One kind poster appreciated my site along with "Banks."

Several, however, seemed to believe that many of the Nats' blogs are not worth reading. One person referred to the "other" blogs, those not listed among his favorites as "substandard puffery."

First, he coined a great term. I'm trying to come up with a way to use it in my masthead. Second, it's perfectly acceptable for fans to denigrate blogs they don't like. No hurt feelings here. That said, I do wonder if blog readers understand why it is we do what we do. I mean, it's easy to scoff at things you don't understand.

I started this blog a month after the team's move became official. I had no desire to become famous (or like El Guapo, infamous) or to watch a site counter spin like my brother's speedometer on his 1971 GTO. In fact, I assumed that no one would ever read the blog.

Why blog then?

I blog for me. Certainly, I try to present the most interesting and polished product that I can, and I am gratified when my readers leave messages indicating their appreciation for my work, but in the end, I write about what interests me. I also write a lot of "I remember when" stories about both the Senators II and my time growing up in Northern Virginia in the 1950's, '60's and '70's. They have been some of my most read work.

The biggest mistake a blogger can make is when he/she begins to write for the readers. When that happens, both the tone and tenor of the blog changes for the worse. That happened to me a year ago. I was garnering 180-200 hits a day (a number that still stuns me by the way) when over a couple of months, I was able to interview both the general manager of the Vermont Lake Monsters as well as mlb.com's Bill Ladson. Suddenly, my site visits doubled and I soon became consumed with site traffic and began to write what I thought you wanted to read rather than what I wanted to write.

It wasn't too long before The Beltway Boys shot up to #6 on striketwo.net, the site that measures all of the Major League Baseball blogs. It couldn't last, however. Burnout, coupled with poor health, turned The Beltway Boys dark for several months. That and my family's resistance to the amount of time I spent at my computer.

Blogging is very time consuming. Typically, I spend 15-20 hours per week writing, editing, proof-reading and researching my stories (assuming I blog seven days a week), pretty much every spare moment I have to myself. Sometimes, we just have to take some time off to reconnect with our lives or risk losing some of those things we love so dearly.

Substandard puffery? I guess it's fair to say that each of us who blog have from time to time written stories that were short on substance because of a lack of time, or talent, or desire. But I will say that each and every team blog fills a niche in my Nationals' appetite. One makes me laugh. One makes me mad. Another has access to the team's front office. Each by itself does a decent job of covering the team, but together, in unison, the Nationals' blog-o-sphere does an excellent job of covering the team, both inside and out. When one blog has a down day, or week, the rest of the sites are there, ready to pick him (or her) up.

So, dear reader, I say that it's fair to fault us for our -- well -- faults. But remember, we spend hundreds of hours each year churning out stories that, for the most part, you can't read anywhere else. We may not always be right, but we at least do our best to cover the team and provide you multiple sources for your Nationals' news.

And we do it for free.

You don't have to like us, but please understand when we sometimes go dark for awhile because life demands we be honorable fathers and husbands, or that we sometimes produce a story that seems rushed or nonsensical because we had only 10 minutes between soccer practice and movie night with our sweetie. We're not writers. We're salesman and students and sometimes - more often than we like to admit - we're just too tired to spend two hours writing a story that too few of you read. Some days 6 of you stop by, other days it's 600. Either way, we have to be prepared for your visit.

I appreciate all of you who take time out of your busy lives to visit the Nationals' blogs. Remember, we write because we love the game, and we love the Nationals. You won't find Barry Svrluga's writing ability here, but then you won't find our passion on the pages of the Post or the Times.

Be it "puffery" or "perfection," we're here for you. We report. You decide.

Where have I heard that before???

# posted by . @ 7:33 PM 5 comments links to this post

[November 8th] -- Be careful of what you wish for.

There are several sources claiming this morning that the Nationals have been talking with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays in hopes of trading for outfielder Rocco Baldelli. For the lowdown on the 26 year old, read the story below that I wrote two weeks ago.

As I pointed out, Baldelli's career numbers - based on a 162 game season - are about the same as Ryan Church, though with a little more speed and a little less on-base percentage.

One thing is for sure: if the Nationals make a deal for Baldelli, he becomes the de facto starting center fielder and Ryan Church is on his way out of Washington.

Read the story below and decide if this is a good idea or not.

----------------------------------------

[October 23rd] -- Rocco Baldelli. Sounds like a guy who grew up in St. Louis in the 1940's along with Joe Garigola and Yogi Berra. It's a great baseball name. Baldelli, however, is a modern-day man, an outfielder for the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Following an outstanding rookie year, it was thought that Baldelli would become the face of the Devil Rays for the next decade. It didn't happen, and the team moved on.

Where is Baldelli going to play in 2008? Washington, maybe? Maybe. I can certainly see the logic in such a move, at least from Jim Bowden's perspective.

Baldelli, 26, is a 6'4", 200 lb outfielder from Rhode Island (he sounds more like Carl Yastremski than Berra when he talks). He had an outstanding prep career and was taken with the 6th pick in the June 2000 draft by Tampa Bay. His scouting report read like this:

"Baldelli has outstanding speed and power for a high schooler. He has great natural instincts for the game. He is an excellent outfielder with tremendous range and the ability to be where the ball lands. Projects as a 30-30 player. The only thing that is keeping him for being a true five-tool player is his throwing arm, which is only slightly above-average."

After three very-good-but-not great years in the minors, Baldelli was named the team's starting center fielder in 2003 at 21, more the result of a very bad major league team than his being totally ready for the major leagues. That said, Baldelli had a great rookie season, going .289-11-78 with 27 stolen bases. He finished 3rd in the Rookie-of-the-Year award, behind Angel Berroa and Hideki Matsui. 2004 was even better; he hit .280-16-74 in 136 games. He missed several games during the year with a variety of nagging injuries, but nothing a quiet off season wouldn't have fixed. The off season, however, was anything but quiet.

Baldelli tore his ACL while playing basketball during that off season. The surgery was successful, and he was feeling pretty good when he reported to Spring Training in 2005. While long tossing, however, he felt soreness in his throwing elbow. Within days, he was back in the operating room, this time for Tommy John surgery. He missed the entire season and wasn't able to return until June of 2006. He finished that season .302-16-57 in just 92 games.

2007 was supposed to be the year that Baldelli had a break out year, that he showed he was healthy and able to play a full season.

Never happened.

Baldelli bruised his leg in late April, and while he didn't miss any games, it slowed him down. A month later, he strained a hamstring and was done for the year. He was batting .281 when he bruised his leg, and ended the year .204-5-12 in just 35 games.

Now, it's obvious that Baldelli shares much in common with Alex Escobar and Nick Johnson in that he has unlimited talent but limited availability to play the game of baseball. He also shares something with former National Jose Guillen though. Both players were offered long term, cash-rich deals that were turned down just before their careers went down the toilet. Baldelli was offered a 5 year / $23 million dollar contract at the age of 22 after just two major league seasons. Jose Guillen turned down his deal with Washington because he was stupid. Baldelli? Well, his agent at the time was none other than Scott Boras.

Boras is no longer Baldelli's agent. Gee, I wonder why?

In total, Rico Baldelli has played in 419 games since he began his career in 2003. He has not played in 379. Basically, he was available to play half the time, which means the Devil Rays decision to move on without him makes perfect sense. Here are Tampa's top four outfielders from 2007:

Carl Crawford: .315-11-80, 50 steals [Age 26]

B.J. Upton: .300-24-82, 22 steals [Age 23]

Delmon Young: .288-13-93, 10 steals [Age 22]

Jonny Gomes: .244-17-56, 12 steals [Age 26]

A healthy Rocco Baldelli has no place to play in Tampa Bay next year. Upton and Young are both very young and haven't even begun to reach their potential. Crawford has averaged .302-15-75, 55 stolen bases since he became a starter. Gomes has averaged .245-20-54 over the past three years while averaging 100 games per season.

Baldelli, then, isn't returning to Tampa in 2008. He's still young, but his trade value is limited because of all the injuries. I mean, what do you think the Nationals could get for Nick Johnson this off-season?

So he's going to get traded, but to where? Perhaps the Nats have an interest? He is, after all, a "toolsy player," the kind of guy that makes Jim Bowden salivate.

Count on Wily Mo Pena as a lock in left, just as Austin Kearns is a lock in right. Justin Maxwell has shown he has a bright future in the major leagues, but not just yet. And Ryan Church? Well, we all know how the team feels about him.

It wouldn't take much to bring Baldelli to Washington. But would he be that much of an upgrade from Ryan Church?

Here is Baldelli's average major league season based on his yearly average of 640 at-bats:

Runs: 94 -- Hits: 181 -- 2B: 31 -- 3b: 7 -- HR: 19 -- RBI: 85 -- SB: 22 -- BB: 32 -- K: 122 -- Ave: .282 -- OBP: .324 -- SLG: .443

Pretty impressive, over all, though his walks and on base percentage are poor. He normally batted second, third and fifth in the Rays' batting order.

Now lets take a look at Ryan Church's career averages, based on those same 640 at-bats:

Runs: 84 -- Hits: 176 -- 2B: 49 -- 3B: 4 -- HR: 31 -- HR: 99 -- SB: 8 -- BB: 68 -- K: 143 -- Ave: .271 -- OBP: .348 -- SLG: .462

Church's numbers are for the most part identical to Baldelli's save stolen bases and batting average. But his .348 OBP is much better than Baldelli's .324 and his OPS is 43 points higher as well. And though Baldellis does have a higher stolen base total, his last two years - since his ACL surgery - looks just like Church's.

Some team, somewhere, is in need of a center fielder and will take a chance on Rocco Baldelli. The Nationals will at least take a look at him, but what they now have is a certainty vs. Baldelli's "maybe." And just so it's clear, while Baldelli is a good center fielder, his career fielding average is .984, whereas Ryan Church has fielded at a .993 clip over that same time.

I think if Baldelli stays healthy, he'll likely hit .280-20-80 or so next season. Ryan Church, if given the opportunity, will likely hit .274-18-80 or so but with a better fielding percentage.

Unless Church can be packaged for a top-flight starter, someone like Johan Santana, then the "brain trust" needs to plug their noses and just let Church play.

It makes just too much sense. I guess that's why Jim Bowden continues to waffle about the guy.

Arizona Fall League: This year, Nationals pitchers are doing much better than hitters. Justin Maxwell is hitting just .174-1-3 in 46 at-bats. Kory Casto is at .238-0-1. Devan Ivany is still doing well at .333-3-6, but his average has dropped over the last few games.

Adam Carr is 0-0, 3.38, Zech Zincola is at 1-1, 3.38 and Garrett Mock is 0-0, 0.00.

# posted by . @ 6:56 AM 2 comments links to this post

[November 7th] -- it was a double whammy for Ryan Zimmerman on Tuesday. He broke a bone in his wrist while taking batting practice (it's not going to effect him next year thank goodness) and then he found out he didn't win his first Gold Glove.

That he didn't win isn't a surprise. He committed 23 errors and seemed to take a step back defensively (though to be fair it was due to a lack of concentration rather than a mechanical problem). What surprised me was that his childhood friend, David Wright, beat him out (Zimmerman came in third behind Wright and perennial winner Scott Rolen). Marty Noble at mlb.com said it this way: "In voting by the coaches and managers in the National League, Wright was elected over the Cardinals' Scott Rolen, who had won the National League Gold Glove for third basemen in seven of the previous nine years, including last season, and Ryan Zimmerman of the Nationals, Wright's long-time friend who generally is regarded as a superior defender. "

We all got the chance to see Wright play often this year, and there was nothing there that indicated he was a Gold-Glove candidate. He makes most of the routine plays but spectacular, Zimmerman-like plays are few and far between. So why Wright?

Lets take a look at Wright and Zimmerman's stats side-by-side.

Wright: Putouts:107 -- Assists:304 -- Errors:21 -- Double Plays:24 -- Fielding %:.954

Zimmerman: Putouts:140 -- Assists:348 -- Errors:23 -- Double Plays:39 -- Fielding %:.955

In roughly the same number of innings, Zimmerman has 33 more putouts, 44 more assists, 15 more double plays and a better fielding percent, not to mention a whole slew of Web Gems.

And yet Wright wins the award.

Fear not. Once Zimmerman wins his first, he'll likely rip off a string of 10 or 12 in a row before he's finally done. I watched Brooks Robinson play as a kid. He's considered the best of all time. Without exaggerating, I think that Ryan is better on the spectacular plays and almost as good on the routine. He just might end up being known as the "best ever."

Could happen.

# posted by . @ 4:38 PM 0 comments links to this post

[November 3rd] -- Sorry it's been a few days since my last post. Not a lot of news combined with not a lot of time means not many stories. Let's see what we can find to talk about....

The Seattle Mariners - to their credit - opted not to pick up Jose Guillen's $9 million dollar option for next year, though they still say they might negotiate a new, multi-year deal with Guillen like any other free agent on the market.

A couple of interesting things here. Guillen, who batted .290-23-99 in 2007, says he wants to end his career with the Mariners. Of course, he said the same thing about the Nationals, and the Angels, and the Athletics, and the Devil Rays and ... well .... you get the idea. Also, Mariners' manager John McLaren says that Guillen has not been a problem in the Seattle clubhouse. "I don't know where all the trouble came from, but he wasn't trouble here" said McLaren.

Newsflash to McLaren: Wait. It'll come.

Jose Guillen reminds me a lot of my wife. When things are going well, when there isn't much to get stressed about, Guillen is a good teammate. But when things are off kilter, when outside pressures are causing problems, Jose Guillen will erupt and destroy the clubhouse (it's a good thing my wife doesn't read this blog, huh?).

The Mariners turned down $9 million a year, and Guillen turned down Jim Bowden's $7 million a year in 2006. Sounds like a 4 year, $32 million deal to me.

Would the Nationals be better with Jose Guillen in right instead of Austin Kearns? Last season, Guillen committed 8 errors, had 9 assists and a .972 fielding percent. Kearns made just 2 errors along with 9 assists. His fielding percent was .995. If Guillen is thought to be an excellent fielder - and he is - then Kearns must be considered a super-star. Offensively, Kearns is capable of matching Guillen's offense, and will probably exceed it one day. And Kearns is considered one of the genuine "nice guys" in the Nationals' clubhouse while Guillen, well you know the answer to that.

Really, it's no comparison. Guillen is four years older and sometimes acts like a four-year old. He'll probably play another six years and do it with six different teams. Kearns, on the other hand, will be a National for the rest of his career.

And now word surfaces that he's been doping for several years. A doped-up outfielder with an anger management problem.

So, what's that worth exactly??

With the general managers' meeting in full swing, there are already several rumors that are beginning to circle the Washington Nationals (and some suggestions from fans to be sure).

Some are trying to read something into Jim Bowden's contacting Aaron Rowand and Tori Hunter's agents. Nothing's happening here. Both are top-tier free agents that just aren't in the Nationals' plans right now; Kasten has said it and Bowden has said it. And they're right. As much as I'd like to see a stud in center, the team just isn't strong enough to ride the coat tails of a super star into the playoffs. And if they aren't, then why spend $12 or $15 million a year?

The Tampa Bay "Rays" [they've all but dropped the "Devil" part of their name] are going to be shopping Scott Kazmir during this year's Winter Meeting. Kazmir was part of the most one-sided trades in recent memory when the Mets traded the former 1st round pick along with Jose Diaz to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays for Bartolome Fortunato and Victor Zambrano [who?]. Playing for a bad team in a decidedly offensive division, Kazmir has gone 35-29, 3.64 since 2005. What would it take to get him into a Nationals' uniform? Start with Matt Chico, throw in either Jon Rauch or Chad Cordero and a mid-level minor leaguer, and you'd be pretty close.

How busy will Jimbo be this off season? My guess is very. The Nationals have to at least appear to be stocking the team with player upgrades for the new stadium. These are the players I expect to be traded by opening day:

• Felipe Lopez: Ronnie Belliard is a great 2nd baseman and the law of averages demands that Cristian Guzman have one good, healthy year out of four in D. C.


• Chad Cordero or Jon Rauch. The team won't miss one of them (with Luis Ayala filling in the 8th inning set-up roll)


• Ryan Church: I love him, the team doesn't. If they find a power hitting outfielder, he'll be the guy to go.

We're getting into my favorite time of year when foundations are being laid for trades and signings that will help craft next year's team.

Wahoo.

# posted by . @ 5:54 PM 0 comments links to this post

[October 27th] -- I remember the day as if it was yesterday. The Nationals announced that renderings for their new stadium would be introduced to the public on March 15th, 2005. I remember because I was due to take two tests that day at school and emailed both professors telling them that I was too *cough-cough* sick to make it to school. About 15 minutes before the press conference, I went to the Washington Post's website and began to hit the refresh button, over and over until David Nakamura's article, and the architect's renderings, appeared.

I didn't know what to expect. A month earlier, Nakamura wrote an article detailing expectations for the stadium. It was to be a "signature" park" with a design that eschewed the retro-look of Camden Yards and its clones (isn't it interesting that the term "cookie-cutter" which once described the spate of circular multi-purpose stadiums can now just as easily be used to describe all of the turn-of-the-century designs that dot the major league landscape?). "We do not want to see just another baseball stadium," said Allen Y. Lew, chief executive of the D.C. Sports and Entertainment Commission. "We want signature architecture. We're not looking to just mimic other cities." In its bid packets, the city government advised architects that they were seeking to "create architecture for Washington that is distinctive and of this time." What did that mean exactly? They never said, other than the complex was to be lower in height than traditional ballparks so as to not hide the vista views that Washington offers.

So I wasn't sure what to expect. When I first saw the renderings, I was happy, but not thrilled. The stadium was great to be sure, but I saw nothing that was particularly spectacular. My biggest concern has been the outside elevations of the stadium. I hope the real deal doesn't have that hodge-podge appearance of the drawings.

I went back and looked closely at the renderings for the first time in more than a year. After all, why bother when you have the real thing to look at. I was curious to see how different the stadium was from those first drawings. From the outfield perspective, things seem about the same save a few glaring differences.

Take a look at the scoreboard. The angle of the steel beams that holds both the "Nationals" name and clock isn't as sloping as it was in the drawings. The letters that make up the team's name was originally to be the same size, using the style of letters that appears on the front of the Potomac Nationals' jersey. The final product, however, uses the same letters that the Nationals' current uniform displays. The letters were to have begun straight and then sloped down towards the clock, but now the 'N' and 'S' begin and end on the same level. Everything else seems the same.

Personally, I liked what the architects envisioned more than what the team ended up with.

The other part that might be different is the huge red "W" above the grassy knoll in dead center. Looking at the construction camera images, I am having a hard time seeing how that it is going to work. Other than that, things are looking pretty close.

It's a great stadium, but it's nothing new and and doesn't redefine baseball architecture. The interior is wonderful but, like I said, I am not particularly enamoured with the exterior.

Still, it beats RFK all to heck.

# posted by . @ 10:33 AM 0 comments links to this post

[October 23rd] -- Rocco Baldelli. Sounds like a guy who grew up in St. Louis in the 1940's along with Joe Garigola and Yogi Berra. It's a great baseball name. Baldelli, however, is a modern-day man, an outfielder for the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Following an outstanding rookie year, it was thought that Baldelli would become the face of the Devil Rays for the next decade. It didn't happen, and the team moved on.

Where is Baldelli going to play in 2008? Washington, maybe? Maybe. I can certainly see the logic in such a move, at least from Jim Bowden's perspective.

Baldelli, 26, is a 6'4", 200 lb outfielder from Rhode Island (he sounds more like Carl Yastremski than Berra when he talks). He had an outstanding prep career and was taken with the 6th pick in the June 2000 draft by Tampa Bay. His scouting report read like this:

"Baldelli has outstanding speed and power for a high schooler. He has great natural instincts for the game. He is an excellent outfielder with tremendous range and the ability to be where the ball lands. Projects as a 30-30 player. The only thing that is keeping him for being a true five-tool player is his throwing arm, which is only slightly above-average."

After three very-good-but-not great years in the minors, Baldelli was named the team's starting center fielder in 2003 at 21, more the result of a very bad major league team than his being totally ready for the major leagues. That said, Baldelli had a great rookie season, going .289-11-78 with 27 stolen bases. He finished 3rd in the Rookie-of-the-Year award, behind Angel Berroa and Hideki Matsui. 2004 was even better; he hit .280-16-74 in 136 games. He missed several games during the year with a variety of nagging injuries, but nothing a quiet off season wouldn't have fixed. The off season, however, was anything but quiet.

Baldelli tore his ACL while playing basketball during that off season. The surgery was successful, and he was feeling pretty good when he reported to Spring Training in 2005. While long tossing, however, he felt soreness in his throwing elbow. Within days, he was back in the operating room, this time for Tommy John surgery. He missed the entire season and wasn't able to return until June of 2006. He finished that season .302-16-57 in just 92 games.

2007 was supposed to be the year that Baldelli had a break out year, that he showed he was healthy and able to play a full season.

Never happened.

Baldelli bruised his leg in late April, and while he didn't miss any games, it slowed him down. A month later, he strained a hamstring and was done for the year. He was batting .281 when he bruised his leg, and ended the year .204-5-12 in just 35 games.

Now, it's obvious that Baldelli shares much in common with Alex Escobar and Nick Johnson in that he has unlimited talent but limited availability to play the game of baseball. He also shares something with former National Jose Guillen though. Both players were offered long term, cash-rich deals that were turned down just before their careers went down the toilet. Baldelli was offered a 5 year / $23 million dollar contract at the age of 22 after just two major league seasons. Jose Guillen turned down his deal with Washington because he was stupid. Baldelli? Well, his agent at the time was none other than Scott Boras.

Boras is no longer Baldelli's agent. Gee, I wonder why?

In total, Rico Baldelli has played in 419 games since he began his career in 2003. He has not played in 379. Basically, he was available to play half the time, which means the Devil Rays decision to move on without him makes perfect sense. Here are Tampa's top four outfielders from 2007:

Carl Crawford: .315-11-80, 50 steals [Age 26]

B.J. Upton: .300-24-82, 22 steals [Age 23]

Delmon Young: .288-13-93, 10 steals [Age 22]

Jonny Gomes: .244-17-56, 12 steals [Age 26]

A healthy Rocco Baldelli has no place to play in Tampa Bay next year. Upton and Young are both very young and haven't even begun to reach their potential. Crawford has averaged .302-15-75, 55 stolen bases since he became a starter. Gomes has averaged .245-20-54 over the past three years while averaging 100 games per season.

Baldelli, then, isn't returning to Tampa in 2008. He's still young, but his trade value is limited because of all the injuries. I mean, what do you think the Nationals could get for Nick Johnson this off-season?

So he's going to get traded, but to where? Perhaps the Nats have an interest? He is, after all, a "toolsy player," the kind of guy that makes Jim Bowden salivate.

Count on Wily Mo Pena as a lock in left, just as Austin Kearns is a lock in right. Justin Maxwell has shown he has a bright future in the major leagues, but not just yet. And Ryan Church? Well, we all know how the team feels about him.

It wouldn't take much to bring Baldelli to Washington. But would he be that much of an upgrade from Ryan Church?

Here is Baldelli's average major league season based on his yearly average of 640 at-bats:

Runs: 94 -- Hits: 181 -- 2B: 31 -- 3b: 7 -- HR: 19 -- RBI: 85 -- SB: 22 -- BB: 32 -- K: 122 -- Ave: .282 -- OBP: .324 -- SLG: .443

Pretty impressive, over all, though his walks and on base percentage are poor. He normally batted second, third and fifth in the Rays' batting order.

Now lets take a look at Ryan Church's career averages, based on those same 640 at-bats:

Runs: 84 -- Hits: 176 -- 2B: 49 -- 3B: 4 -- HR: 31 -- HR: 99 -- SB: 8 -- BB: 68 -- K: 143 -- Ave: .271 -- OBP: .348 -- SLG: .462

Church's numbers are for the most part identical to Baldelli's save stolen bases and batting average. But his .348 OBP is much better than Baldelli's .324 and his OPS is 43 points higher as well. And though Baldellis does have a higher stolen base total, his last two years - since his ACL surgery - looks just like Church's.

Some team, somewhere, is in need of a center fielder and will take a chance on Rocco Baldelli. The Nationals will at least take a look at him, but what they now have is a certainty vs. Baldelli's "maybe." And just so it's clear, while Baldelli is a good center fielder, his career fielding average is .984, whereas Ryan Church has fielded at a .993 clip over that same time.

I think if Baldelli stays healthy, he'll likely hit .280-20-80 or so next season. Ryan Church, if given the opportunity, will likely hit .274-18-80 or so but with a better fielding percentage.

Unless Church can be packaged for a top-flight starter, someone like Johan Santana, then the "brain trust" needs to plug their noses and just let Church play.

It makes just too much sense. I guess that's why Jim Bowden continues to waffle about the guy.

Arizona Fall League: This year, Nationals pitchers are doing much better than hitters. Justin Maxwell is hitting just .174-1-3 in 46 at-bats. Kory Casto is at .238-0-1. Devan Ivany is still doing well at .333-3-6, but his average has dropped over the last few games.

Adam Carr is 0-0, 3.38, Zech Zincola is at 1-1, 3.38 and Garrett Mock is 0-0, 0.00.

# posted by . @ 11:06 AM 1 comments links to this post