[December 1st] -- A short post today -- Idahoans are being attacked by the most incidious of stomach virus, and since I'm an Idahoan, I'm dying here ....

If there is any free agent that typifies the "open wallet" policies of the free agent market, it's Royce Clayton. Clayton, who batted .270 for the Diamondbacks in 2005, found that his best offer for 2006 was a minor league, non-guaranteed contract offered by the Nationals. He bats .258 for Washington and Cincinnati, however, and parlays that into a $1.5 millon dollar deal.

Royce Clayton? $1.5 million? I haven't been as hard on Clayton as some of the other bloggers -- I thought he was "decent enough," but he did nothing - nothing - to earn that kind of raise.

Maybe Vinny Castilla should consider playing one more year?

# posted by Farid Rushdi @ 5:23 PM 3 comments

[November 29th] -- I was thinking about the Senators the other day, and got to thinking about my time growing up as a kid in an area from roughly T.C. Williams High School (it wasn't there yet) to Seven Corners Shopping Center. I saw a lot of things happen from 1960-1974 -- some I remember, some I don't. But I do remember that day in March, 1973.

The Skyline Apartments in Northern Virginia is today one of the most attractive complexes that were built in the mid 1970's. It has been renovated several times to keep up with the times, and provides a warm and attractive place to live

I doubt that many people know today that one of its buildings collapsed, killing several workers.

The construction of the Skyline Towers began in the early 1970's. The site was just north of Bailey's Crossroads in Northern Virginia, on the site of the old "piper cub airport." It had a more proper name, the "Washington-Virginia Airport." It sat on a prime piece of real estate that bordered both Seminary Road and Rout 7. Because of it's location, the Pentagon often used it for helicoptor and small aircraft trials. I remember the Goodyear blimp landing there sometime in the early to mid 1960's, and heard about some old WWII planes dressed up as Japanese fighters landing there on their way to stardom in the movie "Tora Tora Tora." By 1970, however, the encroachment of housing and telephone lines made it difficult for pilots to safely land there, and the airport that was built on Mary Cornelius’ property during World War II was sold to developers for apartment construction.

I lived on the 7th floor of the Woodlake Towers Apartments, and once the building's construction reached the third floor, I could see the towers grow from our balcony. By my senior year, 1974, the skeleton for the first building had just about reached its apex. Although the buildings began to loom over the area, we didn't give them much thought.

That is, until "that" day.

I was riding school bus #724 home from J.E.B. Stuart High School when a police car whizzed by, siren on, very unusual in Fairfax County. Within a few moments, another squad car shot past the bus heading down Columbia Pike towards Bailey's Crossroads. Suddenly, the local fire company blared its siren and its fire engines and emergency vehicles shot in the same direction. We knew something was happening, but we weren't sure what.

I entered my apartment, turned on WTTG channel 5 and made my favorite post school-day snack, a cheese sandwich with sesame crust bread. I lounged on the couch for a couple minutes and then walked by the balcony and glanced in the direction of the Skyline Towers. Something seemed different. Instead of just one building, there were two. I didn't understand. I pointed my telescope towards the building and the story became painfully clear. Part of the top floor caved in, in turn forcing each concrete slab down on the lower floor, beginning a downward domino effect that tore the building in two. Dust was still in the air and helicopters were circling the building. It was horrendous.

If memory serves, 11 men died when the concrete floors pancaked on their way down. A few months later, it was determined that the general contractor used substandard materials and to make matters worse, didn't use enough rebarb in the poor quality concrete. It was a disaster waiting to happen.

Today, the towers are beautiful and serve their tenants well. But 30 years ago, the first building suffered a loss of both integrity and lives. I'd bet this story would come as a surprise to most living in the community today.

"Screech's Best Friend" From "Nats 320" left a comment that said in part, "There is a Burke & Herbert Bank located on Seminary Road, which, at the time of the airport's existence--was on the south side of the runway. ToyRUs was on the North Side of the runway on Rte 7--Leesburg Pike. Even today, that Burke & Herbert Bank has the RED RUNWAY LANDING LIGHTS on top of its building--lining up with the NW-SE Runway that existed at that time. TRU later moved back--onto the site of the actual runway, and still exists there today." There you go, Screech. I found pictures of the bank showing the landing lights. Thanks for pointing that out.

# posted by Farid Rushdi @ 5:33 PM 65 comments

[November 29th] -- I believed Jim Bowden when he said that this might be a quiet off-season, but I didn't realize just how serious he was. Trades and signings have been coming hot and heavy for a couple of weeks now -- teams are filling their needs quickly -- and yet not a peep from the Washington Nationals. Oh, there has been a flury of rumors. Nick Johnson and Brian Schneider are being courted by the Yankees and Chad Cordero is being dangled in front of Theo Epstein and the Red Sox. Maybe they're all true, maybe none of them are. Tomo Ohka says he'd be interested in returning to Washington. Uh-huh. Remember what the Japanese manager said to his boss after beating the Giants in the movie "Mr. Baseball?" "It's going to cost you, chief." Sure, Ohka may want to return, but it's going to cost us, probably more than he's worth.

So why has nothing happened yet?

Two reasons, I think. First, the last thing that Stan Kasten wants to do is to freeze salary availability for a bunch of below-average players. Randy Wolf signed a one year deal with the Dodgers for $8 million dollars. Wasn't that what we were paying Livan Hernandez? If the Nationals traded Livan to clear payroll, why would they suddenly want to take back on a similar amount while signing an inferior pitcher? This year's free agent market just doesn't provide the type of players the Nationals need.

Second -- from the sounds of things anyway --, Bowden is looking to trade some of his established players for pitching and then hopes that players in the farm system, guys like Larry Broadway and Kory Casto, can take up the slack. I think that Bowden is willing to trade several more players away to continue to bolster the team's minor league pitching depth. And that makes sense. Like I've said over and over, if the Nationals aren't going to win with Johnson and Schneider, why keep them?

My guess is -- and this is purely subjective opinion -- that the Nats aren't going to do much in the free agent market. Perhaps they'll re-sign Ramon Ortiz, perhaps they'll trade away a few outfielders and take a chance on Jose Guillen on a one-year, incentive laden deal. What I think will happen, however, are a couple of large trades that will completely revamp the 25 man roster. I doubt that Bowden will trade Schneider (the team has no one else), but the rest of the team's young veterans will be available.

Don't fret being about able to hear the hush-puppy footsteps around the Nationals' offices these days. The noise will come soon enough, and then, as they say, "you can't tell the players without a scorecard."

How'd you figure that? John Sickles has predicted how Ryan Zimmerman will hit. Not next year, mind you. For the rest of his career. Sickles figures that Zim will play until he's 40, hit for a .284 career average and whack 446 home runs. Though I have no idea what parameters he uses to figure all those numbers, my prediction earlier this summer is almost identical.

Probably, we're both just as wrong.

# posted by Farid Rushdi @ 8:22 PM 3 comments

[November 26th] -- Ryan Zimmerman was in his car returning home to Virginia Beach late last month when he gave an interview with a local Charlottesville radio station. Here are some excerpts you may find interesting:

On Frank Robinson:
"Um, Frank did so much for baseball in general over the years, both as a player and a manager. He broke ground for minorities and did a lot of great things. The way he treated me as a young player, from learning from my mistakes and figuring out what to do at that level, I couldn't have had a better guy to learn under for my first year -- what to do, what not to do. He was great."

On the Nationals future:
"We aren't that far from winning, it's just that our pitching was banged up all last year. Because of that trade with the Reds, we had a pretty potent offense the second half of the season, one of the most productive in the league. We'll be okay next year if we pick up some arms. We'll score runs, we'll just have to see how the pitching goes."

On which of his stats is most important to him:
"Gee, I don't know; people thought I was going to come into the league and hit a lot of doubles because that's the kind of hitter I am -- you know -- gap-to-gap style. That's just the way I am. As far as home runs, I had no idea what I'd do. I didn't know if I was going to hit 5 or 25. This was my first complete season with a wood bat. I guess I'm most proud of my RBI's because they help your team too. To get a lot of RBI's, you have to be able to hit with two strikes, you have to be able to hit with runners on base, and these are times when the pitcher is bearing down and trying to not let any runs score. That makes driving in runs harder."

On his favorite web gem:
"Oh, I guess that one in Atlanta when I was going back and dove, and that was pretty fan, and the last one in New York when I kinda caught the ball and was in the stands and whatever, and that one was fun because the New York people heckle you pretty bad, but if you do something good they get on your side. Well, they were heckling me all day and so it was fun when they appreciated what I did. I actually ended up getting ketchup and mustard on my pants that day."

On the length of a major league season:
"To tell you the truth, that's what I was most worried about - the length of the season. You play three or four games in a city against one team then get on a plane and go play somewhere else, and then before you know it, it's the all star break, then there's only fifty games left, and then the year's over. I was worried about losing weight and not maintaining my strength, but that turned out okay.

On hitting the "rookie wall"
Rookie wall? No, not really. I have fun every time I go out and play, and that's the biggest thing. If you come in and you're tired from a long trip and you're late, but once you're in the stadium in front of all the fans, you get excited and want to have fun, it's not really a problem. I had such fun this year - life in the majors - the fans - everyone watching every play - loving the good plays and hating the bad ones. It was a ride.

Zimmerman is experiencing love from a variety of sources these days. This from "Baseballistic:" He's one of baseball's best rookies in 2006, but most people don't realize just how much Ryan Zimmerman brings to the table. Here's a closer look. Ryan Zimmerman is a 5-tool player in the truest sense of the word. He has power, speed, good defense, a good batting average, and a good eye at the plate Is there any more you can ask of a 21-year-old 3rd-baseman? Zimmerman is batted .287 with 20 HR and 110 RBI in his rookie season. He also has 47 doubles, 11 SBs, and a .457 SLG. The rookie also has a terrific glove and arm at third-base. All that talent is adding-up to a strong case for NL Rookie of the Year, and a rock-solid case for "Most Underrated Third-Baseman" of the Year.

And this from "The Book - playing the percentages in baseball:" Zimmerman is one of those "finds" (or more like a stamp of approval) from the Fans Scouting Report. Before the season started, this is what was being written about him: "Jim Bowden doled out after he was drafted, saying Zimmerman had defensive ability comparable to the all-time greats at third base, to Brooks Robinson and Mike Schmidt and Scott Rolen, 32 Gold Gloves among them." Now, you hear exaggerations all the time. However ... In his rookie season this year (he was drafted fourth overall and signed last year), Zimmerman will finish in the top 20 in the Fans Scouting Report, behind Rolen and Chavez at third base. This is a huge piece of information to have, to go along with whatever UZR will say. This is his regression point, and not the average (0) fielder at 3B. Rolen, Chavez, Inge, and Crede are his regression points. FWIW, Zimm is also at +2 wins in clutchiness. Add it up.... +1 win above average with his bat, another +2 wins in clutchiness, another +2 wins for his fielding, and you've got a guy at +5 wins above average. He turns 22 in two days.

Just felt like giving Ryan some love. Enjoy the rest of your day

# posted by Farid Rushdi @ 9:15 PM 0 comments

[November 25th] -- There has been much ado about the John Patterson for Lastings Milledge rumor. First, don't forget last year's "done deal" that was to send Terrmel Sledge to the Padres for Dave Roberts. Most of these rumors are just that: rumors. Second, I'm just not sure how I feel about it. Not the "Milledge" part; I'm very certain I don't want him on our team. I want to like the players I root for. No, I'm talking about the possibility of trading John Patterson for -- well -- anybody.

Before we worry about how we would survive without him, remember that we've never really survived with him. In his "breakout" season of 2005, Patterson won only nine games in thirty-one starts. Last year, his second significant career injury limited him to only eight starts, going 1-2, 4.43. Regardless of his potential, Patterson has crafted a very mundane 17-20, 4.09 career record.

Sure, he might remain healthy for the rest of his career and repeat his 2005 success five or six more times. But it's easy to forget that Patterson will be 29 on opening day. From an ability standpoint, he's as good as he's going to be -- another fifty starts might help refine his ability, but it's not going to make him a better pitcher. Patterson is the Nationals "de facto" ace, meaning he's the ace "until proven otherwise." As in he's never proven that he is an ace. Ever.

As much as I enjoy watching the tall Texan pitch, his value is far higher as trade bait than as a member of the starting rotation. Though I don't want Lastings Milledge on the team, I'd be perfectly content to receive two solid prospects in trade for Patterson (and a secondary player or prospect).

Many years ago, I was managing a camera store here in Idaho that was part of a small chain. I moved out here to get away from Ritz Cameras, the giant camera conglomerate based out of Beltsville. I didn't like working for a mega-company, and left to enjoy the relative solitude of the Inermountain West. Years later, my company was bought out by - you guessed it - Ritz Cameras. The point is, they gave me two options. I could continue to make my guaranteed $40,000 a year (big money in Idaho at that time) or take less in guaranteed money with the potential to make much, much more in commissions and bonuses. Trading Patterson is a similar circumstance. The Nationals can keep Patterson and be guaranteed of owning an above average pitcher, or risk trading him for player or players a whole lot better and with a much higher ceiling. Of course, Patterson could become a "stud" elsewhere and the prospects received for him could turn out to be little more than uniform fillers. It's a crap shoot, and I'm not smart enough to know which path is the best choice.

I don't want to trade Chad Cordero or Nick Johnson or Brian Schneider or any of the team's solid players. But who among us really thinks that a 71 win team needs a top closer? And by the time the Nationals emerge from the NL East basement, both Schneider and Johnson will be working on their next contract, probably somewhere else. If the Nationals are going to be a last-place team with or without these players, why not play Larry Broadway or Brandon Harper or Colin Balestar and further the restocking of the farm system by trading some of our pseudo-stars? I'm not suggesting that this should happen, but I do think it would make sense.

The Lerners will - repeat will - sign some significant free agents prior to moving to the new ballpark. If this is a given, it may make sense to trade a few players, get some prospects, and then replace them with parts found on the free agent market next winter.

I dunno. It beats pretending that this team is anywhere close to moving up the ladder anytime soon.

The Carlos Lee Scenario: No scenario, actually; just thought that sounded kind of cool. "Following the "O'Reilly Report" on FOX is "The Carlos Lee Scenario!"

Okay. Back to baseball. Lee signed with the Houston Astros on Friday for six years, $100 million dollars. For you mathematically-challenged readers, that works out to $16.6 million a year, $400,000 per year less than what Alfonso Soriano receives.

Is he worth it?

In 2006, Lee, playing for both Milwaukee and Texas, batted .300-37-116 with 19 stolen bases. He walked 58 times, soft numbers for a power hitter. However, he struck out only 65 times, an incredibly low number for a power hitter. He hits righties and lefties equally, and his offense is similar at home and on the road, and his stats actually get better late in the season. Defensively, he's "barely average" as TSN's scouting report reads.

Let's take a look at his career stats based on a 580 at bat season:

AB: 580 ~ R:91 ~ H:166 ~ 2B:34 ~ 3B:1 ~ HR:28 ~ RBI:99 ~ SB:12 ~ BB:47 ~ K:82 ~ OBP:.340 ~SLG:.495 ~ AVE: .286

That's a really impressive career stat-line, much better than Alfonso Soriano's. But Lee is not an all-around five-tool player and hasn't carried a team on his back very often during his career. Lee is a liability in the outifield, and the NL - at least the last time I checked - doesn't have the DH. None of those individual statistics is worthy of $16.6 million. None of those individual statistics in combination with any other of his statistics is worth $16.6 million. Lee's career .835 OPS isn't anywhere near it should be for a "slugger."

Carlos Lee is a fine player. He's a fine player deserving of $12 million a year. As is always the case, the signing team can blow its resources anyway it sees fit. The problem is, each crazy contract increases the costs for the rest of the teams. I need only mention Gary Matthews Jr. to make my point.

# posted by Farid Rushdi @ 10:49 AM 4 comments

[November 23rd] -- "Thanksgiving. Yeah, yeah. I'm thankful. Gimme a leg and a beer, and get outa the way so I can see the frickin' game!"

To some, that's what Thanksgiving is all about. And that's okay, really. We tend to live our lives like electricity, looking for the path of least resistance. But for me, Thanksgiving is about choosing one thing each November, and giving thanks.

This Thanksgiving, I am thankful for you.

My wife and kids have so many talents that sometimes I think the good Lord just skipped me entirely to kind of even things out. For instance, my wife makes porcelain dolls. She doesn't just buy parts and clothes and put them together; no no, that would be too easy. She creates them. She sculps them by hand - from scratch - and then makes the clothes for them - by hand - from scratch. She won so many "Blue Ribbons" and "Best of Shows" at the Idaho county and state fairs that she stopped bothering to enter anything a few years ago. Each of my children can do something so well that I've been left to feel inferior for many, many years.

The only thing I could do was write. Big deal. For decades, I'd sit down at the typewriter, pound out a short story or article, read it with pride, and then throw it in the drawer, never to be seen again. Why bother trying to publish? Everyone thinks they are a writer, and what, one-one thousands of a percent of writers get published? No. Rejection like that I didn't need. So I spent the first forty-eight years of my life feeling like I was just one of those "blah" people who could procreate and keep from getting fired from my job, but that was about it.

Then I heard about "blogging." I started "The Beltway Boys" in December of 2004 -- never expecting that anyone would ever read it. But if felt so good to write a short story, or an article, and not have in end up in the bottom drawer of my desk, away from the eyes of those who might enjoy it. Blogging gave me - finally - a sense of pride. Then, an amazing thing happened. People actually began to read the blog. Later, as if that wasn't enough, some left comments saying they actually liked it. Then one day, someone asked me to write a story for their site. For pay! (Okay, it was $5.00). I always thought my knowledge of baseball was no different from the rest of the kids growing up in the 60's and 70's, but - apparently - spending all those years in school day-dreaming about baseball actually helped me accomplish something in my life.

Thank you, for reading - and responding to - "The Beltway Boys." Don't get me wrong, I don't consider myself a "real" writer; this is a blog for goodness sake. Heck, these days every dog has a blog. But you've helped give a soon-to-be middle age guy a sense of purpose and self respect, and that has made all the difference in the world. Thank you.

I can hold my head high now. Well ... actually, I've got this spinal thing going on, so really I can't hold my head very high, but I was speaking metaphorically. Or was that rhetorically?

Forget it. Happy Thanksgiving!

# posted by Farid Rushdi @ 10:32 PM 3 comments

[November 22nd] -- Memo to Jim Bowden and Stan Kasten:

"As badly as I want my Washington Nationals to be a model franchise, as much as I want them to escape the NL East basement, don't - repeat don't - try to fix any major holes in the roster through free agency this year."

Alfonso Soriano got $136 million dollars. So-so middle relievers are getting $4 million a year.

Now this:

"ANAHEIM, Calif. -- Gary Matthews Jr. reached a preliminary agreement Friday on a $50 million, five-year contract with the Los Angeles Angels following a career year with the Texas Rangers. "

Five years, $50 million dollars? Ten million dollars a year? Matthews will be 33 in the first year of the contract, 38 when it expires. And trust me, Matthews' production will expire long before the contract will.

Last year, Matthews batted .313-19-79 for the Rangers, and played some pretty stellar center field. Now, if Matthews had produced those type of numbers over his career, then yeah, I guess today's market might justify $10 million per season.

But until last year, he had never come close.

Prior to 2006, his best season was 255-17-55. Prior to 2006, his career consisted of just 2100 at-bats and a .248 career batting average, with just 59 home runs -- one every 36 at-bats.

Can someone help me understand just what the guy did to warrant a $50 million dollar payday? If Bill Stoneman (and the Tribune Company) want to destroy their own teams, that's fine. But every one of these "I don't believe it" contracts changes the financial horizon for all of the other teams. If -- let's say -- that the Nationals were interested in signing outfielder Dave Roberts, a three year, $17 million dollar contract would have been fair for both sides. But now? Based on career stats, Roberts is a much better player than Matthews. If he's worth $10/$50, what's Roberts worth? More? How much more?

With the Soriano and Matthew's contracts now inflating the costs for the rest of the free agent market, the Nationals have no choice but to sit by the side of the playground and watch the other boys and girls swap marbles. Read the other transactions. Pitchers I've never heard of are earning $15 and $20 million dollar paydays because they are good enough to stay out of the minor leagues.

It's a certainty that the Nationals won't make any significant deals this year, but it's just as certain that -- in anticipation of the new stadium and new revenue streams -- they will attempt to improve the team through free agency prior to moving into the new stadium. Now, I'm not so sure. If things are crazy now, what might happen next year? Will it get worse?

Hoo-boy. Ten million a year....

# posted by Farid Rushdi @ 12:15 PM 3 comments

[November 21st] -- The Boston Globe is reporting that Jim Bowden is thinking about acquiring yet another "toolsy" outfielder:

"One industry executive insisted the Sox were dangling outfielder Wily Mo Pena to the Nationals for closer Chad Cordero, though Nationals GM Jim Bowden, through a club spokesman, denied any such discussions. Bowden, who traded for Pena when he was with Cincinnati, has long held Pena in high regard."

Bowden, of course, denies everything.

This trade is a non-starter, at least as described. Chad Cordero has far more value on the open market than does Wily Mo Pena. While the Red Sox outfielder may one day become a feared slugger, Cordero -- with 76 saves over the last two years -- is already a premier closer.

Pena and a couple of prospects for Cordero, well, that would be a different story. A team learning to win doesn't need a "lights out" closer like Cordero, and teams like the Red Sox might be willing to overpay to get him. The Nationals have several players within the organization, both at the major and minor league level, who could take his place and satisfactorily take over the closer's role while the team rebuilds.

No, I wouldn't worry about this rumor -- at least not yet.

No Relief In Sight: Mike Stanton, who went 7-7, 3.99, 8 saves with the Nationals and Giants last year said he would consider signing with Washington one more time if "things work out." He wanted to play on the East coast to be near his family in New Jersey and he wanted to play for a contender. Well, one out of two aint bad. He ended up signing with the Reds. That's no surprise. He got a two year deal with an option for a third. That's a surprise. He got $5 million dollars. That's rediculous. $2.5 million for a guy who's main job in life is to get lefties out -- for a guy who's only going to pitch 60-70 innings a year?

Let's see: he pitched 67 innings last year. If he does that again for Cincinnati, that works to roughly $37,000 an inning.

I guess that if the Nationals are waiting to sign a reasonably-priced free agent, it's going to be a long, long wait at that.

# posted by Farid Rushdi @ 9:35 AM 2 comments

[November 21st] -- One of my favorite Nationals' blogs is "Nats 320." I especially like the work done by "Screech's Best Friend." He and I have a lot in common; we're about the same age, have similar memories of the Washington Senators, and tend to write generally positive postings about our beloved Nationals. Further, he's married to the "African Queen" and I've seen the movie. I agree with virtually everything he says, and I love -- love -- how he says it. I appreciate the work of a quality wordsmith.

I recommend that you head over to his blog and read his soliloquy (I am assuming that all bloggers are in essence talking to themselves -- I mean, could anyone really be reading our stuff?) on the just concluded "Soriano Summer." Screech skillfully reticulates the interconnecting memories and visual nuances that helped "Sori" become RFK's "star of stars." Screech's warm rememberances seem to suggest that he believes that Soriano's year in D.C. will be long remembered.

I have a different take -- with apologies to my friend.

In the spring of 1976, Reggie Jackson was the premier power hitter in the American League. At 29, he had already hit 254 home runs with the Oakland Athletics, and was beginning to -- from his perspective anyway -- become too big and too famous and too important to continue playing on the wrong side of San Francisco Bay. He moaned and he grumbled and made it clear that he was going to punch his free-agent ticket after the season and find a place to play that was commensurate with his greatness.

A's owner Charley O. Finley was as volatile as he was shrewd (believing the short-porch at Yankee Stadium was helping New York win too many pennants, he constructed it's duplicate at Kansas City's Municipal Stadium and called it the "pennant porch" - insiders called it the "spite fence"). Finley didn't want to lose his star player, but neither did he want Jackson to get his wish to play under the "bright lights" of New York.

So he traded him to Baltimore.

Just days before the season was to open, Finley traded Jackson, Bill VanBommell and Ken Holtzman to Orioles for Paul Mitchell, Mike Torrez and Don Baylor. Talk about a blockbuster. As an Oriole fan (Yes! Hate me!), I was pumped. Van Bommell for Mitchell and Torrez for Holtzman were a wash, but getting Jackson for Don Baylor was steal. There was never a doubt in any of our minds that Jackson wouldn't sign a long-term deal with the Orioles. As far as we were concerned, Memorial Stadium was the nexus of the baseball universe; there was nowhere else to go.

Jackson lived up to his hype. Just like Soriano thirty years later, Jackson was without question the shining star of the Orioles. He didn't hit three homers in a game, but I saw him hit two -- against the Angels (I think). Though history has painted Jackson as a surly man, Reg-gie, Reg-gie was every bit a fan favorite in Baltimore as Soriano was in D.C. When Ryan Zimmerman hit those two walk-off home runs last summer, he was compared not to Soriano, but Reggie Jackson, who's late game heroics are remembered more than thirty years later. Jackson was a far bigger star in '76 than Soriano is today.

And yet, few remember that Jackson was ever a Baltimore Oriole.

Reggie Jackson is remembered around the city of Baltimore as the player who used their town as a stepping-stone to the bright lights and big money of New York City. His five year, $3.5 million dollar deal rocked the baseball world then just as Soriano's eight year, $136 million dollar contract did today. Boog Powell and Brooks Robinson weren't the players Jackson was, but they were loyal to the city of Baltimore, and remain heros there today. Jackson gave the city just one year.

And he's long forgotten.

Yes, Alfonso Soriano provided the city of Washington some amazing moments during his stay in Washington. I think it fair to say that he was a better player than anyone on the expansion Senators, and compares favorably to any hitter on the original Nats.

But he wasn't loyal.

He refused to play in the outfield right up until that second game of spring training. He said he wanted to stay in Washington, and pleaded with Jim Bowden not to trade him at the July 31st deadline. He gave every indication that if the Nationals showed some loyalty, he would too. No, he wasn't talking about a "home town" discount -- at least not a significant one -- but it did seem that he would give the Nationals at least an opportunity to match other team's offers. As it turns out -- according to Bowden anyway -- Soriano's agent Diego Bentz never even returned his phone calls once the free agency feeding-frenzy began.

It's been thirty years since Jackson played with Baltimore. Fast forward thirty years, to a time when our yet-to-be-built stadium will have already begun to show its age (how many name changes to you think the stadium will go through over that time .... 5 .... 6?). I seriously doubt that any of Soriano's history or histrionics will be remembered to any great extent. Frank Howard played in Washington for eight years and was one of the most beloved athletes ever to play in this city. He loved us as much as we loved him. Alfonso Soriano, like Jackson before him, used D.C. as a stepping stone to greater riches. Fans try to forget players like that.

Frank Howard was a rock. Soriano was a stepping-stone. I think that pretty much sums it up.

Church Talk: Things aren't looking too good for Ryan Church. He was supposed to spend time in the Mexican Winter League learning how to hit off-speed pitches, but was a no-show. Initial indications were that Bowden had decided not to send him -- perhaps a signal that Church wasn't going to be part of the team's plans next year.

That wasn't the case. Church didn't go to Mexico because his agent told him not to go. "Agent Jeff Borris said he advised his client not to go because he nothing more to prove in Mexico and should be given a chance to start with the Nationals. Borris pointed that in the last two seasons in the Major Leagues, Church hit a combined . 282 (131-for-464) with 19 home runs 76 RBIs."

Of course, he's right. Church has proven in both 2005 and '06 that he deserves the chance to play everday. But being right and keeping your job are two very different things when you cross your boss. I'd hate to see Church banished in the same way Tomo Ohka was in '05. Hopefully, whatever Bowden decides, it's based on what's best for the team (the Ohka trade certainly wasn't).

Alou In Means Milledge Out: Now that Moises Alou is the Mets starting left-fielder, uber-prospect Lastings Milledge is in no-mans land. With a starting outfield of Alou, Carlos Beltran and Shawn Green, Milledge is trade-bait, or more likely, going to spend 2007 at the Mets' new 'triple A' city (which if I could remember which one it is, I'd have already typed it already). Milledge, who irritated several Mets' veterans last year, may be sent down as part of a "punitive demotion," the type where the GM says "grow up, kid."

Dodging The Bullet Doesn't Always Mean You Survive: The silver lining in the "Soriano to Chicago" story was that he didn't end up in the NL East, particularly Philadelphia. Yeah, but .... Reports are coming out of Philly that GM Pat Gillick's "Plan B" is Carlos Lee, who would put up Soriano-like numbers in Band-box One Park, or whatever the name of that place is.

Busting The Actuaraial Table: With the signing of Moises Alou, the Mets' starting position players average nearly 33 years of age, with only two -- Jose Reyes & David Wright -- under the age of 29. And this is a dynasty-in-the-making??

Can I Love Ryan Howard? I watched his acceptance speech for winning the NL MVP award, and the guy is just stunning. He's good looking, more articulate than many of my professors, and humble to boot. He began by saying, "I'd like to thank my Lord and Savior Jesus Christ, my mother and my father ...." Again, being religious doesn't make him a person better than others, but it does show that he credits people other than himself for his good fortune. I dig that.

# posted by Farid Rushdi @ 3:20 PM 2 comments

[November 20th] --So, Now What???

Okay. The unknown is now known, as if we didn't know, you know? ( I don't think my 9th grade English teacher would have appreciated that last sentence) The point is we no longer have to worry about Soriano and his prospective cut of the Nationals $60 odd million dollar payroll for 2007.

Near as I can figure, the Nationals don't need very many (or any) free agent position players. Let's run down the starting eight (taking into account that some players may be out of their opening day position):

1. 1B: Nick Johnson
2. 2B: Felipe Lopez
3. SS: Cristian Guzman
4. 3B: Ryan Zimmerman
5. LF: Kory Casto / Mike Restovich
6. CF: Alex Escobar or Nook Logan
7. RF: Austin Kearns
8. C: Brian Schneider

And The reserves:

1. [C] Brandon Harper
2. [INF/OF] Robert Fick
3. [INF] Bernie Castro
4. [INF] To Be Determined
5. [OF] Mike Restovich or Kory Casto
6. [OF] Nook Logan or Alex Escobar

The starting eight will be strong enough and competitive enough with the other team's in the NL East. The reserves, are as good as the group that ended last season, maybe a little better (assuming that the team can sign another Marlon Anderson or Daryle Ward to fill the one open position).

Ryan Church is Jose Vidro are conspicuous by their omission. I can't see the Nationals keeping Vidro for another season -- he can still hit but he is embarrassing both himself and the team in the field. MLB scouts say that Felipe Lopez is a below average short stop but could be an above average second baseman. Cristian Guzman should be healthy and raring to make amends for his horrid 2005 season. My guess is that Vidro (and a significant amount of cash) will be shipped off for some so-so prospects, Lopes will move to second and Guzman will return to short.

I would miss Church, one of my favorite players. He would seem to be the odd-man out in the Nationals' outfield merry-go-round, especially if Escobar is healthy and the team fufills its promise to Kory Casto -- that he would get the chance to compete for the starting left-field spot if Soriano wasn't resigned. Church should bring a decent starting pitcher, and won't be missed if - if (if) Escobar remains healthy and/or Nook Logan repeats his 2006 September seven times next year. I think Kasto is ready, and Restovich is reliable. Kearns is good enough in right (see Chris, I said something positive about the guy).

And don't forget Jose Guillen. He could just as easily come back next season on a incentive-based contract and (almost) replace Soriano. Could a healthy Guillen hit .290-28-110? You bet he could, and provide a much better defense at the same time.

Now, the starting rotation is a different matter:

1. John Patterson (assuming he's healthy and assuming 2005 wasn't a fluke)
2. Mike O'Connor (assuming he pitches like his first month and not his last two)
3. Shawn Hill (assuming he pitches like his first couple of starts and not his last few)
4. Beltran Perez (assuming his last start was the fluke and not his first two)
5. Jon Rauch (assuming he's willing to move into the rotation this year)

As you can see, we have five "assuming's" and zero "likely's." That's just scary as heck. The only way Jason Bergman and Billy Traber will make the Nationals' staff are as relievers. In reality, the Nats need to acquire three starting pitchers. Based on the ridiculous free-agent costs we've seen thus far, you'd have to assume that trades are the only venue that can add starters to the staff. Who do they have as bait?

• Ryan Church
• Jose Vidro
• Larry Broadway

So, the Nationals don't have any "stars" ready to move into the rotation in their farm system, and they aren't going to pay top-dollar for bargain-basement retreads, and they don't have many tradeable players that could fetch some arms.

So, now what?

I'm afraid that the Nationals only real option is to stock the rotation with pitchers who might one day be solid major league pitchers. Mike O'Connor, Shawn Hill and Beltran Perez are certainly no worse than Mark Redman of the Royals (11-10, 5.71). He's a free agent and will likely cost more than Ramon Ortiz did last year. Why spend the money? In the minors, guys like Marco Estrada or Matt Chico might get an opportunity if they have a "lights out" spring.

I just don't see the Nationals doing very much in the free agent market save signing a reserve infielder or a couple of relievers. That said, isn't what those twenty-one minor league free agents were signed for? No, I think the team is basically set, with any questions answered from within the organization.

And that's not a bad thing. We're all ready for some tough times for the next couple of years. Remember the old Fram oil filter ad, "You can pay me now, or you can pay me later?" We can pay for the hard times today, or we can pay later. I'd just as soon pay now and get it over with.

Heck, I'm 50; I'm not sure how many more seasons I have left in me.

Let's get on with it.

# posted by Farid Rushdi @ 6:48 PM 4 comments

[November 19th] -- From the sounds of things, it's official.

If it is, whoo - boy.

ESPN Radio in Chicago is reporting that the Chicago Cubs have signed Alfonso Soriano to a ....

... get this ....

EIGHT YEAR, $136 MILLION DOLLAR CONTRACT. For those of you without a calculator handy, that works out to $17 million a year until the year 2014.

Soriano will be 38 years old when his contract expires.

Um, I just don't know what to say. I'm not upset that he's not going to be here next year -- even at $13 million a year, he would have siphoned off too much of a young team's maturing payroll. That $17 million could buy the Nats two, maybe even three "plus" starting pitchers. But, man! Just when you think that the owners are regaining some sense of business acumen, something like this happens.

The Chicago Cubs' fans got screwed.

In two or three years, Soriano's skills will begin to deteriorate, and by the year 2011 or so, he's going to be a .260-30-80 below-average outfielder.

Making $17 million dollars a year.

All I can figure is that the Tribune Company, owners of the Cubs, are in the process of selling the team, and don't have to worry about Soriano's contract years and years from now.

And years.

There is also that "draft choice" thing. Remember how we were all saying that two first round picks were more than enough payment for Soriano? Well, because the Cubs had a worse record than the Nationals, their #1 pick is off-limits. Looks like the Nats will get the sandwich pick and the Cubs second round choice.

unbelievable.

For a more well-versed look at the whole "draft choice" scenario, click here to read the Farm Authority's take on what might happen. They don't call them the "authority" for nothing.

# posted by Farid Rushdi @ 12:26 PM 3 comments

[November 19th] -- John Sickels, considered a "prospect guru" by some, has announced his top-twenty prospects for the Washington Nationals for next season.

There are no real surprises, save perhaps Larry Broadway being listed as the 12th best prospect. When Jim Bowden came here two years ago, Broadway was "the guy," one of the very few real prospects the organization had.

Of the top twenty prospects, twelve have been acquired, either through trade or the draft, by the Bowden administration. That tells me two things: first, the farm system really, really sucked before his arrival, and two, he's doing a pretty decent job of restocking the shelves.

Now, before you get all giddy, things aren't that rosy, at least not yet. The Nationals' top-20 breaks down like this: A's: 0 - B's: 5 - C's: 15. Let's compare that to, say, the Minnesota Twins: A's: 1 - B's:11 - C's: 8. The Braves have 10 B's and 10 C's. Even the moribund Kansas City Royals have 3 A's and 5 B's in their farm system.

Sickel lists the next ten prospects as totally interchangeable, one no better than the next. They are all "C's": Adam Carr (P), Rogerearvin Bernadina (OF), Roy Corcoran (P), Frank Diaz (OF), Stephen Englund (OF), Devan Ivany (C), John Lannan (P), Salomon Manriquez (C), Justin Maxwell (OF), Yunior Novoa (P), and Cory Van Allen (P).

Sickles says that the Nationals' farm system "might be the worst farm system in the game right now." Well, of course it is. The team is just now coming out of the wilderness that was the MLB ownership debacle, and it still remembers the bargain-basement owner that preceded Bud Selig, Jeffrey Loria. After coming to an informal agreement with the city of Montreal to build LaBatt Park and remain in Canada, he went back on his word and demanded that the city pay for more of the facility. From that point on, it was down hill. He stopped funding the minor league system and just hung around until he was able to buy the Florida Marlins. For more than seven years, then, baseball allowed the franchise to just whither on the vine. Is it any surprise, then, that the Nationals' farm system "might be the worst ... in the game right now?"

Things are better, thank goodness. The tunnel is still surrounding the franchise, but we can at least see a light deep within its darkness. It will take time, but we'll make it. And when the Nationals ultimately take their place at the head of the line, we can beam with pride and say, "We were there at the beginning."

It's worth the suffering today for that moment in the future.

# posted by Farid Rushdi @ 8:47 AM 4 comments

[November 17th] -- Marco Estrada has been one of those names buried in the Nationals' minor league system that didn't mean much, a guy who was filling a uniform but never really mentioned in the same breath with Kory Casto, Larry Broadway and the other true "prospects" in the organization.

That may be changing, however.

Estrada, 23, was a 6th round pick by the Nationals in the 2005 draft out of Long Beach State where he went 8-3, 2.43 in his only college season. His first year in the professional ranks, however, was an eye-opener to say the least. Playing for Vermont in the short-season NY-Penn League, Estrada went 1-3, 5.08 for the Expos. Things weren't as bad as his numbers might indicate, though. Estrada struck out nearly ten batters per nine innings, and allowed less than a hit per inning. He did walk a lot of batters, however (4.2 per 9 innings).

Estrada began the 2006 season with the Gulf Coast Nationals, and pitched very well, going 2-0, 1.52 in 23 innings. His internal numbers were strong as well, allowing only five hits and two walks per nine innings. He struck out 27 in 23 innings. A mid-season promotion to Savannah forced Estrada to face much better hitters than in the GCL, and he struggled accordingly, going 1-4, 5.59. He gave up more hits and struck out fewer batters, taking some of the shine off his Gulf Coast League efforts. He was sent to the Hawaiian winter league, where he again flourished. Estrada went 0-2, 1.32 in 27 innings against mostly second tier prospects (but prospects nonetheless). He struck out 32 (10.6 k's per 9 innings) and again allowed less than one hit per inning. He still is having some difficulty with his control, but appears ready to begin 2007 at class 'A' Potomac.

Estrada was named the #10 prospect in the Hawaiian Winter Baseball.

"Marco Estrada, rhp, pitched for the Waikiki Beach Boys (Nationals). A separated shoulder just before spring training cost Estrada the first two months of the regular season, and he didn't hit his stride until he got to Hawaii, where he ranked second in the league in ERA. A sixth-rounder in 2005 out of Long Beach State, Estrada throws three pitches for strikes. His best offering is an above-average curveball that gave hitters fits in Hawaii. He also has good feel for a changeup. His fastball velocity is underwhelming and he typically sat at 88-90 mph. He needs to cut down on his walks. Estrada's stuff and profile are similar to Kennedy's but he lacks the notable pedigree."

Although Estrada is progressing nicely through the Nationals' minor league system, it's doubtful that he'll be seen in the Nationals' new stadium until sometime in late 2008 or early 2009.

Over the past two years, Nats' fans have kept an eye on draft choices taken in the first three or four rounds, names that we were at least familiar with. Now, however, it's becoming obvious that the Nationals "brain trust" did a very good job of making quality picks later in the draft (remember, Dee Brown was taken four rounds later).

Here is an article written by Vincent Bonsignore for the Los Angeles Daily News:

Four years removed from an unremarkable career at Sylmar High and a season removed from a self-inflicted one-year exile from baseball, Estrada has emerged from seemingly nowhere to become a bonafide pro prospect and the co-ace of the 24-11 Long Beach State pitching staff. "First game he pitched this year, people were like, 'Marco Estrada, who the heck is that?' " Long Beach State pitching coach Troy Buckley said. "He's shutting down (Arizona State) and nobody knows who the heck he is. He just stepped right in and started getting the job done."

Nobody saw any of this coming for Estrada, least of all the Long Beach State coaching staff. "We had no idea, to be perfectly honest," Buckley said. In Buckley's defense, what could he really expect from a pitcher who played just one uneventful year at Sylmar High, then spent two years shuffling between the bullpen and starting rotation at Glendale College? Not to mention a guy who didn't even pick up a baseball all of last year. Estrada sat out the entire season while taking two classes he needed to transfer to Long Beach. "The most frustrating year of my life," Estrada said.

Estrada wasn't even guaranteed to earn a regular job on the 49ers' staff, let alone fill the void left behind by dominating All-American Jared Weaver, a first-round pick of the Angels. In fact, by the time undersized 6-foot right-hander finally showed up at Long Beach State for fall ball last year, he was just another face in a nine-pitcher competition for a spot in the 49ers' rotation. "I was just trying to earn my place," Estrada said. "More than anything, I was just happy to be getting a shot and playing baseball again."

But it wasn't long before he captured the attention of Buckley, a guy who studies a pitcher's persona and personality almost as much as he measures how much their curveball bites. What Buckley saw was a polished pitcher who wasn't afraid of a fight. Maybe it was the way Estrada had to scratch and claw for everything he's ever gotten in life -- the only child of a struggling single mother, enduring three years of JV ball at Sylmar before finally getting a shot on varsity; sitting out all of 2004 to get his academics in order -- but the newcomer from the San Fernando Valley projected a sense of toughness and savvy that immediately caught the eye of Buckley. "The journey he's traveled, the way he came up, it all plays a part in the type of pitcher he is," Buckley said.

Estrada arrived with a good fastball (which ranges from 87 to 93 mph) and a quality curveball, and in fall ball he added a slider while also making major improvements on his changeup. By the end of the fall, his arsenal consisted of four quality pitches, each of which he had enough confidence in to throw at any point in the count. It's one thing to throw a changeup for a strike when the whole park is expecting a fastball, quite another to blow a fastball by someone when the whole park is expecting a fastball. That's the kind of pitcher Estrada was coming out of fall ball. "He took that progress into the (regular) season and started putting things together," Buckley said.

It all came together for Estrada when he earned a start against Arizona State in the opening weekend of the season, allowing just one earned run while scattering eight hits with three strikeouts over six innings against Sun Devils. Long Beach State won 11-1 and Estrada came away with a sense of belonging. "To have that kind of performance right off the bat against a really good team was huge for my confidence," Estrada said. "I couldn't have asked for a better start."

Success came rapidly after that -- a four-inning relief stint against USC in which he retired all 12 batters he faced; two earned runs and nine strikeouts in five innings against St. Mary's. A month into the season, Estrada was the No. 2 starter behind ace Cesar Ramos and showing veteran savvy by shrugging off a subpar performance against hard-hitting Baylor to limit Houston to one run over six innings while striking out eight in a 5-1 victory.

The bounceback from the Baylor pounding -- in which he got the win despite giving up three earned runs and seven hits in five innings -- was a critical sign for Buckley, a confirmation that Estrada is grasping the mental side of pitching in college as much as he is the physical. "You can't hang your head over a bad pitch, or a bad outing," Buckley said. "You keep fighting." It's a mind-set Buckley thinks will serve Estrada well when he turns pro, which could happen after this season, depending on how high Estrada gets drafted.

"He's got the stuff to pitch at the next level, he'll get drafted and he'll play pro ball," Buckley said. "After that, it's how does a 6-foot right-hander stand up to the physical aspect of a professional season, and how does he figure out ways to be successful. And in Marco's case, I'm talking about Triple-A and in the big leagues. He's got the stuff to get there."

Here's hoping that Buckley is right.

# posted by Farid Rushdi @ 12:45 PM 1 comments

[November 15th] -- I have been trying to remember something form my d-e-e-p past and I was hoping one of my readers (Screech, this means you!) might help.

As a little kid, I used to love going to Great Falls. In the old days, there was only one place to eat there, a large building (a log cabin variant I think) where the restaurant was located -- I'm talking circa 1962-1965. You would walk up three or four steps and be on a covered porch that ran the entire way along the front of the building. There were tables there -- that's where we always ate (I don't remember eating inside, or even if you could).

That's all that I remember. Does anyone else have any recollections regarding this place? It was brown log, rough hewn (my memory says it kinda looked like the Cartwright's Ponderosa house) and probably (but I don't remember this for sure) had a gift store in the building.

Anything you can remember would be a great help. I'm trying to finish my personal history and there are just too many holes to make it complete.

Thanks everyone.

# posted by Farid Rushdi @ 3:16 PM 4 comments

[November 16th] -- When I was a kid rooting for the Washington Senators in the mid to late 1960's, baseball team's had a much different makeup. African Americans made up nearly 27% of team's rosters. Today, it's less than 9%. Why? Studies suggest that wearing a baseball jersey in a predominantly black community just didn't cut it. Basketball jerseys and expensive shoes were the ticket to fame and fortune outside of the neighborhood.

That's why the story of Dee Brown is so amazing.

Dee Brown, the Nationals' 10th round pick in the 2005 draft, is the son of former Miami Hurricane and Philadelphia Eagle defensive standout Jerome Brown, whose life was tragically cut short in a high-speed auto accident a decade ago. He went to Central Florida University on a football scholarship, though baseball was his favorite sport. Playing college football was a way to honor his father's memory. In his senior year of high school, Brown rushed for 1,001 yards and scored 11 touchdowns while batting .489 with 12 home runs.

The Orlando Sentinel named him the 12th best high school football prospect in Florida, and was heavily recruited by Georgia, Tennessee and Florida Sate before settling on Central Florida (he preferred their baseball program). In 2002, his freshman year at Central Florida, Brown rushed for 67 yards against Toledo and amassed another 66 yards receiving as the team's starting fullback. But though he was a great football player, he was even better on the diamond. He won the Atlantic Sun Conference Freshman of the Year Award, led the Knights in hits (85), RBIs (56) and total bases (111), and finished second in batting average (.397). By the time he graduated, Brown set countless records for the UCF baseball team. He finished his career batting .360 with 26 home runs and 195 RBI's. With his athletic pedigree and gaudy collegiate statistics, most thought that Brown would be drafted in the first three rounds of the 2005 draft.

He ended up being taken in the 10th round by the Nationals, the 294th player taken.

Scouts felt that Brown's game wasn't as polished as it should have been, probably due to his playing two sports for so many years. But while scouts may have seen flaws in Brown's "game," the pitchers in the New York - Penn league had a hard time finding them. Brown batted .283-8-32 in just 184 at-bats for the Vermont Expos in 2005. He began the 2006 season at Savannah, hitting .278-6-51 before getting a late season call-up to Potomac, where he did even better. He ended the season a combined .283-10-75, and will certainly begin 2007 at 'AA' Harrisburg.

For all of his sudden success in the professional ranks, Brown remains a modest man. "I'm your one day at a time type person," he said. "I'm still learning every day. I don't think I'm better than anybody...I'm a simple person." He says his personality has been formed by his family's religious background. His grandfather, David Stewart Sr. was a Baptist minister just like his father before him. His uncle, David Stewart Jr. is also a minister. Two more of his uncles are ministers and two of his aunts are also missionaries. Brown, true to his family's beliefs, prays every night before going to bed, though admits he doesn't get to church as often as he'd like.

Dee Brown's tenure with the Nationals has been a bit confusing. In 2005, a different Dee Brown played in the Nationals' minor league system for a year before returning to the Royals' organization. But now that we know who he is, one thing is for certain. Dee Brown has a bright future in Washington. If he continues to improve at his present pace, he could be ready for a "cup of coffiee" sometime in 2008. He can play both left and right field -- he's a good fielder, but still has a lot to learn. At 5'11", 230 lbs, he has a build that may allow him to develop into a real power hitter. Running backs, however, are not slow. He stole 14 bases last year in 19 attempts.

Perhaps Dee Brown will be the Nationals first "diamond in the rough," a late round draft pick that "made it." Brown loves the game of baseball, and in time, Washington just may love Dee Brown. As an African American, Brown has the opportunity to make a difference in Washington's black community. As near as I can figure, only two African Americans, Chris Booker and Nook Logan, were on the team's roster at the end of last season. The city needs blacks heroes.

Good luck, Dee Brown. We look forward to seeing you soon.

Stanton: Third time's the charm? Nah, it couldn't be, could it? Mike Stanton said on Wednesday that he wouldn't mind coming back to the Nationals for a third stint in 2007. "I had a good time in Washington," said Stanton, who had a 4.47 ERA with the Nationals last season. "They have a good bunch of young kids there. It was fun playing there. At this point in my career, you don't rule out anything or anyone. With the background that I have with the Nationals, and with Jim, anything is possible." Manny Acta says he wants at least two lefty relievers in the bullpen, and with only Micah Bowie (himself a free agent) as the only remaining southpaw, Stanton just might be back.

Page Returning to D.C. Mitchell Page, only a couple of weeks since being demoted to roving minor league hitting instructor, is back in D.C. as Manny Acta's hitting coach. Jim Bowden said that he moved Page to keep him with the team, and that he always wanted the new manager to choose his coaches. Page said that some positive comments by assistant G.M. Bob Boone sealed the deal.

# posted by Farid Rushdi @ 7:13 PM 1 comments

[November 15th] -- I'm not one to complain when other baseball websites get it wrong; goodness knows that I don't have a perfect record when it comes to "getting it right." That said, sometimes the inaccuracies of some of the bigger sites makes me wonder.

Rotoworld.com is one of my favorite baseball sites. The moment a transaction occurs or news is made in the baseball world, rotoworld.com has both the information and their analysis on that team's site. So when new manager Manny Acta mentioned that he likes outfielder Nook Logan, rotoworld posted this analysis:

"Acta seems as excited about Logan as Frank Robinson was. "Logan played well during the month of September," he said. "Nook has a tool that never goes into a slump and that is speed, especially playing in spacious RFK Stadium. This team has not had a reliable center fielder the last three or four years. We are going to give him every opportunity to win the job." It'd be positively disgusting if Church didn't have a starting job given the current competition, but he is a better option in left than in center. It could be Church versus Casto in left and Logan against Escobar in center. Casto is the only one who is unlikely to get a bench spot if he doesn't win a starting job. Unmentioned by Acta was the recently signed Michael Restovich, who would be a solid choice as a platoonmate for Church."

There is no question that Mike Restovich was signed to be a possible/probable right-handed bat in an outfield platoon. It's just that Ryan Church wasn't the person the team was considering platooning; it was Kory Casto.

There are two certainties regarding the Nationals' young outfielder. First, Casto destroys right-handed pitching. Second, he can't hit lefties to save his life (.189 in 2006). Knowing that he can't hit left-handers well, but also realizing that Kory Casto may be a starter in the outfield in 2007 by default, Jim Bowden brought in a quality bat in Restovich, a guy who would just love to be in the major leagues regardless of the situation. A Casto/Restovich platoon could easily produce numbers in the .275-25-85 range, not Soriano like, but certainly good enough for the '07 Nationals.

So why does rotoworld.com think that Ryan Church should be platooned?

Take a look at these splits from Church's last two seasons with the Nationals. Both lines took his actual at-bats against lefties and righties and extrapolated them out to 580, typical for an everyday player. You tell me if he needs to be platooned:

• Vs. right-handers: .278-25-87 .(.887 OPS)
• Vs. left-handers: ...303-14-133 (.891 OPS)

Against lefties, Church has a higher batting average, better run production, and a higher OPS. Against righties, Church has more pure power.

Why then would rotoworld.com want to platoon Ryan Church?

One of Church's main "selling points" is his ability to hit lefties and righties equally well, as well as providing solid defense (two errors in the last two years) and above average speed. Austin Kearns, on the other hand, should be platooned. In 2006 Kearns batted only .236 against right-handers (who he faced 71% of the time). His home run ratio of 1:26 against righties is worse than Church's 1:23. Against lefties, Kearns bats 100 points higher.

So why is rotoworld trying to platoon Ryan Church but not Austin Kearns and Kory Casto? Church's 2006 season, based on those same 580 at-bats, would have looked like this (now compare what Church might have done to what Kearns did do)

• [Church] Ave: .276 - Hits:162 - 2B:51 - 3B:3 -. HR:30 - RBI:105 -.SB:18
• [Kearns] Ave: .264 .- Hits:142 - 2B:33 - 3B:1 - .HR:24 - RBI:86 - ..SB:8

Granted, I am comparing what Kearns did vs. what Church would have done, but I think the suggestion is clear enough. Church could easily replace Kearns in right next year. Defensively, Church may not be adept enough to patrol center on a regular basis, but he is certainly capable in right. Over the past two seasons, Kearns has made seven errors, Church two. Kearns has a .984 career fielding percent, Church is ten points higher at .994.

1] The Nationals need starting pitching. 2] The Nationals have a glut of outfielders. 3] The Nationals should trade an outfielder for pitching. Which player do you think will bring a better starting pitcher, Ryan Church or Austin Kearns? The Nationals could trade Kearns (perhaps throw in a less-needed prospect, say Larry Broadway) and get a pretty good starter for the team's deficient rotation. Church could then take over in right and (hopefully) provide at least the same production, perhaps a bit more than Kearns did. The Casto/Restovich platoon could be an effective replacement for Soriano in left, and Nook Logan and Alex Escobar could battle for the starting center field job.

I still think rotoworld.com is a fine site and I'll still visit it several times a day. It would be nice, however, if they provide analysis based on hard, cold statistics rather than a subjective guess based on seeing a player play poorly in one game out of 162.

DeRosa DeRicher: Mark DeRosa, the epitomy of a journeyman infielder, signed a three year, $13 million dollar contract with the Chicago Cubs on Wednesday.

Do general managers take drugs during the off-season?

Sure, De Rosa, 31, had a good year for the Texas Rangers, batting .296-13-74, but one season does not a career make. Prior to last season, De Rosa had 1,100 at-bats over eight major league seasons, hitting 25 home runs (one homer every 45 at-bats). Going into 2006, he had a career .325 on-base percentage and a .262 batting average.

Then, based on one good year, De Rosa is now the starting second baseman for the Cubs, making $4.3 million dollars per year. Hmmm. The Red Sox fork over $51 million to bargain with a pitcher who has never played a day in the Major Leagues, and the Cubs pay $13 million to a guy whose total career at-bats barely add up to three seasons worth of games.

Maybe it's a good thing that Stan Kasten and Jim Bowden are shying away from this year's free-agent market.

# posted by Farid Rushdi @ 9:25 AM 5 comments

[November 15th] -- First off, I'd like to thank Al Gore for inventing the internet. Without him, I'd never have been able to watch the press conference that introduced Manny Acta to the Nationals' Nation.

First reaction: I love the guy.

Let me first tell you my greatest fear heading into this process (PC police: hold off attacking me until I finish). I was worried that the Nationals were going to hire a Latino player in the mold of Ozzie Guillen, a person who is vile, profane, and barely speaks English (funny, his curse words come out the clearest). That's not to say that all Latino's are like Ozzie; rather, I was worried that our Latino was going to be like Ozzie. I'm not one of those Americans who demands that all living here learn English -- I just think that speaking English makes living here much easier.

It took about five seconds to calm my fears. Acta is as articulate with the English language as I am. His vivaciousness and preciousness, personality traits that don't often transcend a language barrier, were obvious in every spoken word. He has a subtle sense of humor, and doesn't take himself too seriously.

Here are some things that impressed me during his thirty-minute presser:

"I'd like to thank God, ...." Again, don't get me wrong; I'm not suggesting that being a religious man makes him a better manager. But I am drawn to people who don't give themselves all the credit for getting ahead in life. Whether you attribute personal success to God, or your parents, or your wife, this type of selfless act says a lot about the person.

"God Bless America ... I've been an American since 1999." Though he spoke glowingly of his years in the Dominican Republic, Acta took a step that few Latino athletes do: become naturalized citizens. Acta said, "I came from a poor country, came to America, worked hard, kept my nose clean, and made something of myself. Only in America." Not only does he believe in the American dream, he's living it.

"The first phone call I got after the news reports was from Alfonso Soriano." That indicates that Soriano holds no animosity towards Acta for benching him during the WBC series. Acta also said that not only are the two men Dominicans, but they come from the same region, separated by "just two sugar cane fields." When asked if his presence in D.C. would help bring Soriano back, he said "Sure, that will help, but there other reasons he'll need to return too," meaning about $17 million dollars a year. It sounded like he didn't seem hopeful that Soriano would return.

"I was 20 when someone in the Astros organization told me to my face that I couldn't play baseball very well." They did tell him, however, that he'd make a good coach, and began that career at the age of 22 helping Bobby Abreu as a special coach teaching him English. By the time he was 24, he was a manager in the minor leagues. When he told the Astros' GM that he wasn't any older than the players he was to manage, the reply was, "So don't tell them how old you are."

Acta said that, although he interviewed with the Rangers and Giants, it was this job in this city that he wanted the most. Normally, I'd say that was politically correct speak -- obviously, you don't want to "diss" the other teams you talked with. But you know what? I really believed him. His facial expressions, that lilt in his voice, made me believe that he wanted to manage my team. How cool is that?

As I had previously written, I was afraid the Nationals were going to hire a Latino manager because they wanted to hire a "Latino manager." I couldn't have been more wrong. The Washington Nationals hired the best man available -- a man who just happens to be Latino. With the ever increasing Hispanic population in and around the District, having a manager who can converse fluently with everybody makes total sense. And, really, they didn't hire a Latino after all; they hired an American.

Slowly, the remnants of the Expos debacle are slowly falling away, being replaced with people, programs and policies that will bring the Washington Nationals to the forefront of major league baseball. When asked of the team's short-term future, Acta said that the Nationals have the position players to compete for a playoff birth now; it's the starting rotation that is making this a non-competitive team. And he's so right. So when he says the Nationals can start winning sooner, and not later, I believe him.

The honeymoon has begun. I hope he is given every opportunity to succeed, and I pray that Jim Bowden does nothing to screw up his chances for that success. I have been saying since the day that Frank Robinson got fired that who ever the new manager was wouldn't last more than a few years, that he would be a "throw away" manager -- someone to keep the seat warm until a much better Nationals' team could draw much better candidates.

Again, it seems that I was wrong. This guy seems to be the "real deal," and I couldn't be happier.

By the way, head over to Nats 320 for a first hand report of the press conference. Our good friend was there and provides a wonderful report on the goings-on.

BOWDEN-ISM: I've decided that Jim Bowden should stop trying to be funny. As he introduced the Nationals' new manager to the crowd, he said, "Now let's Acta-vate, baby!"

Uh-huh.

# posted by Farid Rushdi @ 4:39 PM 6 comments

[November 14th] -- My private little corner of Idaho awoke to snow this morning and my first thought was -- "Wow, a great day for baseball!" I know; I've got to get a life. But some things never change. When I was a kid growing up near 7-corners, my friend Rolando would call me up in the middle of a blizzard and say, "Do you want to play some baseball?" I'd grab my jacket, snowshoes and glove, and head down to the little field between the buildings. I would wait but no one would ever come. Somewhere, Rolando, Phil, and Eggy were laughing their heads off. I was just like Charley Brown trying to kick the football; I fell for it every time.

(Sigh...)

Cheap Thrills? Stan Kasten has made it clear that the Nationals are going after 1) cheap 2) pitchers. I've been going through the bargain basement looking for pitchers who might come cheap enough who could also help the team (I know, like that's going to happen). One name that intrigued me was Seattle's Gil Meche. Meche, still only 28, has a career record of 55-44 with a 4.65 ERA. Worse, he allows an average of 13 baserunners per 9 innings. With those many runners on base, a pitcher is going to give up four runs per game just by accident.

Last season, the Nationals signed a then 28 year old Ramon Ortiz to a one-year contract after crafting a 70-60, 4.66 career record, better than Meche's. Like Meche, Ortiz gives up too many base runners, almost 14 per 9 innings. Like Meche, Ortiz's ERA has risen throughout his career. It was hoped that Ortiz would have a rebound year in 2006 playing in the expansiveness that is RFK.

Never happened.

Ortiz signed a contract worth roughly the amount of change found in Alex Rodriguez' sofa. You'd think, then, that Gil Meche could be had for roughly the same dollars. Same career numbers. Same difficulties with base runners. Same high ERA. All that should add up to the same type of contract.

Nope.

(Note: a good friend appreciated the inclusion of this picture of Meche wearing the throw-back Seattle Pilots uniform -- to see what happened to the uniform when the team moved to Milwaukee, click here.)

Gil Meche's agent has reported that half of Major League Baseball's thirty teams have contacted him about signing his client, with several telling him that Meche is the team's "top priority." This sounds like Meche is going to get a contract more like Jarrod Washburn's 3 year / $22.5 million deal (Seattle, 2006) then Ramon Ortiz's $2.5 million one year deal he signed with the Nats.

Why?

I haven't a clue. Meche has never been more than three games over .500 in any one season in his career, and his 4.66 career ERA is terrible considering he has pitched in Safeco Field -- the RFK of the American League -- his entire career.

I hope the Nationals don't sign any starting pitchers from the free-agent market. It's well known that getting pitching this way is akin to popping into a 7-11 to do your grocery shopping. The top free agent pitchers, the best-of-the-best, tend to produce for their new team. But the rest of the guys, pitchers like Meche, tend to be a drain on the team that signs them. Jarrod Washburn had career stats similar to both Ramon Ortiz and Gil Meche when he signed with the Mariners last winter. He was one of the free-agent pitchers the Nationals were pursuing, and someone I was lobbying for. He signed that $7.5 million/year deal, and then promptly went 8-14, 4.67 for the Mariners. Seattle is now stuck with him; they can trade him and they don't want him. That's what inflated long-term deals do to a team.

Can you say Jose Vidro? (actually, that's not fair -- Vidro was rewarded for his loyalty during a very tumultuous time in the team's history)

No, it's too much of a crap-shoot finding pitching this way. The Nationals' best option is to trade some of the surplus position players (and perhaps a less-needed prospect, say Larry Broadway) for the pitching the team so desperately needs. Patterson is ready to anchor the rotation, and Jon Rauch is now (finally) willing to join him there. Add a third starter via the aforementioned trade and then fill the last two slots in the rotation from the current pool that includes Mike O'Connor, Shawn Hill, Beltran Perez and whoever else appears ready. This seems the best way.

No more free agent pitchers. Like some of Arabic food I so enjoyed when I was young, they look good while on the shelf but end up leaving a very bad taste in your mouth.

Columbus: a Step up -- or down? I don't think there was a single blogger (or fan for that matter) who wasn't excited at the Nationals' 'AAA' move from New Orleans to Columbus for the 2007 season. Don't get me wrong, there is nothing wrong with New Orleans (especially if you have a drinking problem), but the city has nothing in common with Washington, D.C. Columbus, on the other hand, is a capital, and is more an east coast city than is New Orleans. The problem lies with the stadium. New Orleans play in Zephyrs Stadium, a newer, state-of-the-art stadium that looks a whole lot like a miniature major league park. Cooper Stadium, on the other hand, is an old, worn down facility that is just hanging on until Columbus' new park can be built. Although Huntington Park was to be ready for the Nationals' second year in Columbus, it will now not be ready until 2009, by which time the Washington will probably have their 'AAA' affiliate somewhere else and either Cleveland or Cincinnati will claim a working agreement with Columbus.

That's too bad. It would have been nice for the guys to play a year in the new park.

# posted by Farid Rushdi @ 7:04 AM 2 comments