[January 2nd] -- Sigh. January 2nd is always a depressing day for me. After seemingly day after day of holidays and fun and food, the real world - and all its problems - returns. Unless you're a student or a banker, the next holiday is in May. And that is a long, long time away. Guess all we can do is concentrate on baseball and the upcoming season.

The Nationals roster seems more up in the air to me that it did this time last year, which is weird since the team brought in, what, 40 starting pitchers into Spring Training? I can live with the uncertainty at catcher (how much time is Jesus Flores going to get?) and first (gee, Nick Johnson is hurt?) but this whole outfield thing is bothersome. Unless something changes in the next couple of months, the Nats are going to arrive in Viera with four starting outfielders, of which only one - Austin Kearns - has ever played in the big leagues on a consistent basis. The other three, Wily Mo Pena, Elijah Dukes and Lastings Milledge, all deserve the opportunity to play every day based on what they've shown over the past couple of years (Dukes' .190 average doesn't particularly bother me). But the outfield glut doesn't stop there. By the end of the year, the Nationals might have two more guys - Chris Marrero and Justin Maxwell - who might deserve the opportunity to show what they've got, and another - Michael Burgess - who just might be the best of the lot, could be less than a couple of years away.

So what's the team going to do?

I wouldn't have a problem with the Nationals going north with those four guys if even one of them was a lefty. There are too many outfielders who are all right-handed. That's not a good thing regardless of how well they all hit.

At this point, I have to believe that just three of the four are going to make the team.

Left: Wily Mo Pena: Jim Bowden has been after Pena for too long, and he's too cheap, and too talented not to play every day, and he's proven in limited action that he can produce if given a chance. With the Nationals, he would have hit .293-32-88 in a 550 at-bat season. There is no reason to believe he can't do that in 2008. At the very least, the Nationals have to let him prove that he can, or can't, be a real slugger at the major league level. At 26, he is still young and hasn't reached his potential. I'm not even sure anyone knows exactly what his potential is. .280-40-120? Quite possibly.

Center: Lastings Milledge: Again, Bowden has lusted over Milledge, in his case since his days in high school. The only thing that kept Milledge from have outstanding numbers in 2007 was limited playing time. Based on a full season, Milledge would have hit .272-21-87. He'll be 23 next year and might be another player the Nationals build around. He's not going to be a slugger, but he will likely blossom into a .285-27-90 type player. He has to stay too.

Right: Austin Kearns: Yet another of Bowden's "boys." Kearns is the question mark in the Nationals outfield, but he has several things going for him. First, he plays the game right. Second, he's still cheap, though that's going to change in the coming years. And third, he's due. The Reds bandbox inflated his numbers while with Cincinnati, and RFK deflated his numbers since he's played in Washington. The new park should be just about right for Kearns. I wouldn't be surprised if Kearns finally becomes the offensive player that we all expected in 2008, hitting .270-25-90 or so while playing a superb right field.

That said, I think Kearns is a year away from a big trade. He'll be 28 this season, and will see his contract jump from $5 million in '08 to $8 million in 2009. My guess is that the Nationals will trade Kearns, perhaps package him with a prospect or two, and get a significant starting pitcher to help with a playoff run in 2009. That would leave right field available for ......

Elijah Dukes: Of the "fab four," playing Dukes at Columbus for a year makes the most sense. Though Dmitri Young is his designated mentor in Washington, I'm sure the team can find someone to watch over him at 'AAA.' Sure, he would have hit 31 homers and walked 103 times in a full season last year, but his .190 average shows the need for seasoning. Rather than force him to become an angel at the major league level, why not let him grow up in a less threatening, less volatile atmosphere?

I believe that the kid can become a decent person and superb player. The photos at the top of this post are of Dave Parker. While with the Pirates, he was a bad boy, perhaps the baddest of all. There is a picture of him smoking a joint in the dugout of a Spring Training game in the early 1970's. He drank a lot, fought a lot, and scared a whole lot of people. Tired of the troublesome outfielder, the Pirates shipped him and his declining skills off to the Reds, who told him to shave, shape up and stop screwing around. He had three of his best years with Cincinnati before ending his career with the Athletics.

The point is, if Dave Parker could turn himself around, so can Elijah Dukes.

With Kearns traded for pitching, what could this outfield produce in 2009?

Pena: .275-35-110 ---- Milledge: .300-28-90 ---- Dukes: .280-38-110

I know, if if if if if. But that is certainly better than Ryan Church, Nook Logan and Austin Kearns, right? Add those three guys to Ryan Zimmerman and [hopefully] Nick Johnson, and the Nationals have at least the chance of chasing a playoff berth.

But for now, at least, let Dukes play in Columbus, baseball's version of a Borg maturation chamber.

I don't demand that the Nationals contend in 2009, but I do demand that they at least have the opportunity to -- assuming things go there way.

Now, this entire exercise in guessing who goes where doesn't address the predominance of right-handed batters in the Nationals' lineup. I don't have an answer, though I am truly worried that Jim Bowden is perfectly willing to field this out-of-balance lineup. Rob Mackowiak was a great addition to the outfield and certainly can fill in against the nastier right-handed pitchers.

That said, without a few lefty hitters that we can count on, it's going to be difficult to field a productive offense night in and night out.

Coming up next: an in depth look at Matt Whitney. His is a particularly interesting story.

# posted by Farid Rushdi @ 7:06 PM 1 comments

[December 10th] -- Just when we think we know what's going to happen, Jimbo surprises us.

Over and over again.

After Barry Svurluga suggested that the Nationals were close to signing Paul Lo Duca last week in Nashville, he (and the team) backed off when it appeared that the Toronto Blue Jays were willing to give him a 2-year deal. Suddenly, the Nationals seemed ready to ride the E-train (as in Johnny Estrada) into the new park.

A few days later, it's Lo Duca.

Really.

Lo Duca, 35, is a Arizona State University grad who jumped onto the scene as a rookie with the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2001 when he batted .320-25-90 with a .917 OPS. It goes without saying that he never again came close to producing those type of numbers. No one expected him to succeed like he did; he was a 29 year old rookie who spent his first 8 years as a professional in the minor leagues.

Why did he choose the Nationals? As Sally Field might say, "he liked us. He really really liked us."

While there has been no specifics from the Nationals, most seem to believe that Jesus Flores will remain with the team, catching 30 or so games next year. That doesn't make a bit of sense to me. Either play the kid 130 games and let him learn on the job, or send him to Columbus and let him play there every day. Flores isn't some 19 year old who has years to learn his craft. He's 23 and he doesn't want to end up being as old as Lo Duca was before he becomes a starter at the major league level.

Having Paul Lo Duca as the team's starter for a year neither hurts, nor helps, the Nationals. He's a stop-gap, nothing more. What worries me is this: What's better -- a losing team full of nice, decent guys, or a winning team full of schmucks?

I have very strong memories of 2005, that Jeckyl-and-Hyde season, where Jose Guillen's antics were often the lead story in the local papers. If you listened closely, you could hear the hail of hosannas that were shouted throughout the Beltway community after Guillen became a Seattle Mariner.

No, Paul Lo Duca isn't a bad guy, but he's certainly not a family man either (to the consternation of his wife). Lastings Milledge isn't a bad guy, but it's going to be a few years before he matures into an adult. Elijah Dukes? He could be a bad guy -- he could be like Sloth on The Goonies, chained to a chair in the basement in the new park, allowed out of his dungeon only to hit long homers for the Nationals. And Tyler Clippard? His photo in a Yankee uniform makes him look like an All-American boy, but his nude MySpace pic (cropped just so to hide his dangling participle) tells a different story.

Lastings Milledge + Elijah Dukes + Tyler Clippard + Aaron Boone - Brian Schnedier - Glen Gibson - Jonathon Abeldegado (or whatever) - Ryan Church = what? Good? Bad?

There is no doubt in my mind that the Nationals are a better team today. If everyone does what they are capable of, and if Nick Johnson returns at 100% as he swears he now will, then this is a particularly potent lineup:

1B: Nick Johnson - .285-25-90 or Dmitri Young: .285-15-80

2B: Ronnie Belliard - .275-14-60

SS: Cristian Guzman - .250-5-40

3B: Ryan Zimmerman - .295-28-110

C: Paul Lo Duca - .275-8-50

And these four outfielders - if given the chance to start - could produce as well:

LF - Wily Mo Pena - .270-35-90

CF - Lastings Milledge - .285-25-90

RF - Austin Kearns - .270-24-85

?F - Elijah Dukes - .250-35-90

That's a good lineup if - IF - there are no surprises in terms of injuries and continuity. There is a decent chance that this lineup could help lead the Nationals to a near .500 record in 2008, assuming of course the starting rotation continues to grow and mature.

But will the team be loved? Will 2008 become StarSearch or Star Wars? Will there be a Dr. Smith in the clubhouse sabotaging our Jupiter II? Will every headline include words like "Fight" or "Clubhouse Cancer" or "Arrested?"

While I doubt this will be the case, I still worry that Nationals' might be reminiscing about the "good old days," the days of Jose Guillen.

TRIVIA: Lastings Milledge got his name because his parents decided he was to be the last child they would have, hence "Lastings."

That's cute, right?

# posted by Farid Rushdi @ 12:52 PM 1 comments

[December 6th] -- Looks like things are winding down in Tennessee and we're beginning to get a better idea of what this team is going to look like come Opening Day.

Or not.

Four outfielders for three spots, three infielders for two spots, three first baseman for one spot and a Rule V draftee who plays third base and has to stay with the team the entire year - or else - .....

See? Aren't things clearer, now?

And the great majority of the team's starting lineup are right-handed hitters.

I'm seeing this team - at least right now - as a jigsaw puzzle with too many pieces; no way you can fit the pieces together until the extras are removed. I know less about this team, about Ryan Zimmerman's injury, about everything, than I did a week ago.

One of my neighbors owns five Kia Spectras, one for each of his driving-age family. It looks very strange over their in his driveway - the colors are all similar - but that doesn't stop his family from getting to where they need to be every day. It looks strange, but it works. Same applies to the Nationals, at least as they are presently constituted. There are a bunch of Kia Spectras on the Nationals right now, all about the same color, all with about the same accessories and mileage. Will my neighbor ever buy a Honda or a Chrysler or a Ford? Maybe. Will the Nationals get rid of some of their spare parts - mostly righties - and create some balance?

My years of baseball experience (my first baseball game featured some guy named Maris) tell me that Jim Bowden is just too smart to take this team into the new stadium March 30th.

My guess is that this was only the beginning, but that the end might not come until Spring Training, maybe later.

Right now, I can only pick one certain starter, and he might not be a certainty if his hand surgery turns ugly (remember how we were told that Nick Johnson would be ready for Spring Training '07?). Nick or Dmitri? Ronnie, Felipe or Cristian? Ryan or Aaron? Wily Mo or Lastings or Elijah or Austin? Flores? Who knows???

Thanks, Jim. You've certainly cleared everything up.

# posted by Farid Rushdi @ 11:27 AM 1 comments

[December 6th] -- I dislike uncertainty with a passion. Take the Nationals' outfield as currently constructed, for example. Four starters for three positions. It is almost inconceivable that any of these four players won't start come April, yet someone is going to sit on the bench - or even more possible - spend part of the season at the 'AAA' level.

Austin Kearns isn't going anywhere anytime soon. He is considered one of the nicest and most decent players on the team. It wouldn't look good for the Nationals for Kearns to be playing in Kansas City or St. Louis when his replacement, Elijah Dukes, gets locked up for yet another indiscretion. Prediction for 2008: .270-25-85

And Wily Mo Pena isn't going anywhere either. He just signed a contract extension (2 years / $7 million) and is considered by most (me included) to be the only real slugger among this group. Besides, Jimbo loves him just like he loves Austin Kearns. Nope. Barring some reverse-epiphany next spring on his part, Pena is the Nationals' anointed slugger. Prediction for 2008: .267-32-100

So who's going to play center field?

Elijah Dukes is a center fielder. He's a 6'2", 235 center fielder. He's a center fielder built like a fullback. Now, sure, he only hit .190 in 184 at-bats last year, but to be fair, he had a few things on his mind. Playing a full year, he would have hit 30 homers and 65 RBI's. Interestingly, he was also on pace to walk 100 times, giving him a .190 batting average along with a .318 OBP; a very strange combination. Defensively, he didn't make an error in 52 games. What could he do if given the opportunity to play every day? Well, if he does what he did last year but raises his batting average to .250 or so, he'd likely hit 35 homers, drive in 100 RBI's and walk 100 times.

Isn't that enough to earn him a starting position?

Lastings Milledge is a more compact 6'0", 190 lbs. His 2007 numbers were better than Dukes. Interestingly, both Milledge and Dukes had 184 at-bats last year.

Dukes: .190-10-21 / Milledge: .272-7-29. He made four errors last year. Milledge will likely hit for a higher average with fewer homers but about the same number of RBI's assuming they bat in the same place in the lineup. Playing a full year, Milledge would have hit 21 homers and drove in 99 runs. Pretty impressive.

So which one starts? One (Milledge) is ready to play everyday. Dukes might be ready, might hit 40 homers but also might end up in jail.

I believe Jimbo when he says all four will compete for a starting job next year, but really, the only players doing the fighting will be Dukes and Milledge.

And I just can't say at this point as to which one I want to win.

I'm very happy with the Tyler Clippard trade; in fact, I think the Nationals received far more in value than they gave up. Jonathan Albaladejo did a fine job at every level for the Nationals last year, but remember, he was released by the Pirates earlier in the summer. Maybe he's figured "it" out, but maybe he hasn't.

Clippard has given up 10.5 baserunners per 9 innings during his minor league career, a very very good number. Even better, he fans 9.5 batters per 9 and crafted a very impressive .236 batting average-against.

Certainly, his 3-1, 6.33 record with the Yankees isn't stunning, but it is deceiving. Heading into his final two starts, he was 3-1, 3.60. His undoing was all the walks that came in his final three starts.

He's just as likely as anyone else on the team to earn a spot in the starting rotation.

And we got him for a reliever that cost us nothing. Impressive.

Now, we just have to see what happens at catcher.

# posted by Farid Rushdi @ 7:29 PM 1 comments

[December 3rd] -- First, sorry it took so long to get on the Dukes trade. I spent the afternoon with a 102 degree fever and my finger on the ballparkguys refresh button watching the excitement unfold.

I wrote after the Milledge trade that there was no chance the Nats would go after Elijah Dukes. Just shows how little bloggers know.

First it was Elijah Dukes for Chad Cordero. Then it was Jon Rauch. Then it was "some guy to be named later," giving the impression that we didn't give up anyone of value for the .... um .... eccentric .... no, that's not it .... mercurial .... no, that's not it either ..... oft-arrested? ..... outfielder. Of course, it ended up being Glen Gibson, one of the many young pitchers who impressed this season at rookie-level Vermont.

There seems to be two camps in the Nat-o-sphere about this trade, just like the Milledge trade but with more passion on the negative side. The "I'm cool with it" camp likes Jim Bowden's attempt to collect young, high ceiling players for relatively little cost. The "WTF" community is mad because either 1] the team seems bent on collecting all of the available baseball-bad guys or 2] "The Plan" is a cover story for the team's penny-pinching ways.

I choose curtain #3, where you'll find Jim Bowden on the phone trying to make another deal.

Look, we're not exactly dealing from a position of power yet. The Nationals are - finally - better than an expansion team but aren't anywhere near being a middle-of-the-road franchise. The only way to get better without being fiscally irresponsible is to make a lot of these high risk, high reward deals.

Fast forward three years from now. Brian Schneider is a 34 year old defensive backstop with waning skills and Ryan Church is a 32 year old outfielder who is still a very good complementary player. Hopefully, possibly and perhaps even probably, Elijah Dukes and Lastings Milledge will become near stars, combining to hit .300 with 60 homers and 220 RBI's. The Reality, however, is that one of them - and I don't know which - will become a star, a .300-35-120 kind of guy. The other will either be out of the league or little more than a Church-like complementary player. So what if the trade ends up becoming Gibson, Church and Schneider for a star that'll still be playing in 2017? That's still a pretty good deal.

So, there you go; the Elijah Dukes trade is Beltway Boys Approved.

Some believe that the Dukes' deal is a precursor to other trades that will send one of the four starting four outfielders elsewhere. I don't think so. More likely, the Nationals will head to Spring Training and tell Austin, Elijah, Wily and Lastings, "The three best players start."

Yes, I'm worried about Dukes' attitude, but then again history has shown time and time again that 'problem players' often become model citizens. Dave Parker was the biggest ***** in the major leagues in the 1970's an 1980's. There was a famous photo of him smoking pot in the Pirates dugout in Spring Training. He was traded to Cincinnati, cut his hair and beard, an became one of the most feared power hitters in the league.

So Dukes could become an all-star, or he could become an inmate. Time will tell.

How good can these guys be? Here is what these four outfielders are capable of:

Wily Mo Pena: .275-35-120 --- Elijah Dukes: .290-30-100 --- Lastings Milledge: .310-25-100 --- Austin Kearns: .270-25-90

I'm just saying .....

So far, so good. Gibson wasn't a "nobody," but we've got a guy now just like him by the name of John Lannan.

He won't be missed.

UPDATE: Shows you again that bloggers are nothing more than fans with computers. After I just said that all four outfielders will battle it out for playing time this spring, and after Jim Bowden said exactly the same thing earlier this evening, reports are now surfacing that the Nationals are shopping Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez around for a starting pitcher, someone like Mike Pelfrey. That would guarantee both newbies a starting job in the outfield and Mr. Belliard (I'm too sleepy to remember if ours is Ronnie or Rafael right now) would be the team's starting 2nd baseman (which I love, he's the team's best option there).

I'd miss Kearns; we know what he can do while the Nationals' version of the "Lost Boys" haven't done diddly yet in the majors. Come to think of it, that starting three could just as easily hit 100 homers as they could hit 40.

I dunno. That would be a little scary - and uncertain - heading into the new park.

# posted by Farid Rushdi @ 6:16 PM 2 comments