[April 26th] -- Going into Sunday's game against the New York Mets, the Washington Nationals are in last place in the National League East with an 8-16 record. I'm not suprised, are you? With almost a 7th of the season played, we're starting to get a feel as to how good (or bad) the team is going to be this year. If they keep at their current pace, they are going to win just 53 games, and that's just not going to happen. Several of the team's top players have gotten off to a slow start; when they heat up, the wins wills come at a faster rate. That said, the team's offense, when extrapolated out over a full 162 games, looks very much like some of the poorer teams over the past thirty years:

• 1B Dmitri Young: .262-20-73
• 2B Ronnie Belliard: .290-7-59
• SS Felipe Lopez: .280-0-53 (20 sb)
• 3B Ryan Zimmerman: .245-7-53
• LF Chris Snelling: .217-7-47
• CF Ryan Church: .280-20-83
• RF Austin Kearns: .272-13-41
• C Brian Schneider: .192-7-83

There are of course a couple of caveats within those statistics. There is no way that Ryan Zimmerman is going to continue to hit so poorly (though there is equally no way he's going to drive in 110 runs again with fewer baserunners to drive in). By the end of the year, look for Zim to be somewhere in the .280-20-75 range. Second, who knows where Dmitri Young and Ronnie Belliard will be come the All-star break. There is talk of Young moving to left field when Nick Johnson returns (and reports this morning seem indicate that Nick is suddenly making great strides towards regaining his leg strength). I'm certainly not against Young taking over in left, but I have these bad memories of Daryle Ward embarrassing himself in the outfield last year and don't want to see that repeated. He's averaged almost seven errors per 162 games played in the outfield. Compare that to Austin Kearns (who's considered a solid defensive outfielder), who has averaged six errors per 162 games. Can he get to enough balls hit to the outfield? That's the question, I guess.

Brian Schneider is getting off to his typically slow start, so don't look for him to be at .192 come September (but don't look for him to have 83 RBI's either). Austin Kearns will also have much better numbers by the end of the year. Though he isn't the stud that Jim Bowden thinks he is, he is a solid complimentary player for a playoff team. He is not, however, someone who can carry the Nationals through the difficult times. These are his career averages based on a 574 at-bat season:

AB:574 - H:152 - 2B:33 - 3B:3 - HR:24 - RBI:92 - SB:7 - Ave:.264 - OPB:.360 - SLG:.462

When healthy, the Nationals' 3-4-5 batters, Zimmerman, Nick Johnson and Kearns, are certainly good enough to generate enough runs for a contending team. Combined, the three of them will hit somewhere around . 295 and drive in 300 runs. They'll never hit a bunch of homers (80 seems to be their combined maximum), but they get on base and they drive in runs.

Right now (assuming the return of Nick Johnson), the Nationals have only one hole in their starting lineup - left field. Regardless of what's coming out of the mouths of the Nationals' big-wigs, the combination of Ronnie Belliard at 2nd and Felipe Lopez at short is the team's best double play duo. What do they do with Cristian Guzman? I don't know. When Nook Logan returns, Church will return to left and fill that hole, but will having Logan in center create another one? Probably. The team just doesn't have enough power and run-producing ability to keep Logan in the starting lineup.

Pitching is another story. I don't want to project the starter's numbers because - frankly - they are too scary to look at. A few things have come out of the first month of the season, however. First, the Nationals have two solid starters in Jason Bergman and Shawn Hill. Hill, who is 2-2, 2.76, isn't doing anything new. Although he finished last year 1-3, 4.66, he was the team's best pitcher before injuries took their toll. Before developing arm troubles, Hill averaged 6.5 innings per start, giving up 5 hits, 2 walks and striking out 3 per contest. his ERA was just 2.42. Once he was forced to pitch in pain, however, his numbers spiraled downward. In his last two starts, he threw just 10 innings, giving up 21 hits and 12 runs. When we look at Hill's numbers from last year, then, we should look at what he did before he was hurt. This year, he's averaged 6.2 innings per start, allowing 5 hits and 2 walks while striking out 4 - almost identical to his pre-injury stats from last year.

So we have Hill, and we have Bergman. Williams looks good one day and bad the next. The same goes for Matt Chico, but he's young and still learning. Chico could end the year with a 10-15, 5.50 record and it could still be considered a good rookie year.

So, the Nationals seem to be one everyday player and three starting pitchers (and probably, sadly, one closer) away from being a contender. I don't see that outfielder in the minors - the team needs an Alfonso Soriano in the outfield, not a Kory Casto. Enough with the supporting players already.

If the Nationals spend all of that saved money next year, get a couple of real pitchers and a solid outfielder, the team could win 85 games.

If if if if if. I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

# posted by Farid Rushdi @ 9:48 AM 2 comments

[April 25th] -- I thought I'd really enjoy MLB.com's new and improved streaming video this year. The "700" version really does offer a much sharper, more TV-like image than the "400" version from last year.

Too bad I can now watch the Nationals get whacked night in and night out in such life-like clarity.

Oh well.

I thought I might bring you some good news - and for that to happen, it's going to have to come from the minor leagues. Listed above are the eight best starting pitchers among the Nationals four farm teams (none of the Hagerstown Suns' pitchers are playing well enough to make the list). I am most interested to see how well Mike Hinckley is doing this year. After getting rocked last year in Potomac, Hinckley is doing better against better talent this year.

The way John Patterson and Jerome Williams are pitching, you can bet that Jim Bowden is keeping a close eye on several of these guys.

# posted by Farid Rushdi @ 9:41 PM 0 comments

[April 24th] -- Nineteen games into the 2007 season, the Nationals are playing about as expected; not particularly good. With a record of 6-13, the team is on pace to forge a 51-111 record. Of course, the team is going to win many more games than that; the early season sample is just too small to worry about. They play well for two or three games in a row, then get blown out over a weekend. Par for the course as set out by Jim Bowden and Stan Kasten. I can certainly live with it.

There are some positive stories coming out of RFK thus far, perhaps more than any of us thought would happen. Ryan Church is hitting well, and his defense in center is much improved. The team's right side of the infield, Dmitiri Young and Ronnie Belliard, are playing about as well as any of us could have hoped (It'll be interesting to see what happens to the two of them when Nick Johnson and Cristian Guzman come off the disabled list). Rookie catcher Jesus Flores has shown that his defense is major league ready, and his arm seems even stronger than Brian Schneider's.

The starting pitching, a concern last fall, is still a concern. John Patterson can't get his fastball anywhere near 90 mph and his "stuff" just isn't good enough to get major league hitters out without his heater. Maybe he'll return to his 2005 form, but maybe not. At this point, I'm leaning towards the "not." Jerome Williams continues to show that, while he has major league talent, he just can't win with it. Shawn Hill, however, is another story. He is performing like the pitcher the organization believed he'd be when he first took the mound for the Expos in 2004. Of the starting pitchers, Jason Bergman (who impressed me in 2005), looks most impressive. In 16 innings, Bergman has allowed just 11 hits while striking out 15. Those are super-star numbers. The 11 walks, however, are not. This isn't a new problem for the 25 year old; he walked 38 in 83 innings in 2005-06. His problem, however, is a good one. His stuff is so electric that is moves too much.

And then there's Chad Cordero. He looks bad, doesn't he? In 9 innings, he's given up a whopping 22 baserunners, almost 2 1/2 per inning. Prior to this season, Cordero - who always gives up a lot of baserunners - has averaged 1.2 runners per inning, enough to keep us on the edge of our seats. This year, however, we're off the seat and on the floor barfing. Cordero is giving up 2.4 baserunners per inning. I'm worried that the league has figured Chad out. When you're fastball tops out at 91 mph, you have to be able to spot it at will, something Cordero is no longer doing. Hopefully, he'll warm up with the weather.

It's interesting to see how the many former Nationals are doing around the major leagues this year. Jose Vidro is batting .276-2-7 for Seattle. Jose Guillen, who promised a monster year for the Mariners, is at .217-1-2. Wow. After looking studly during spring training, Tony Armas Jr. has reverted to his old self in Pittsburgh. He's only 0-2, 18.90. Ramon Ortiz, however, is surprising everyone in Minnesota. He's 3-0, 2.05 in 22 innings. Though I doubt he'll keep that up, it's a good start nonetheless. Brendan Harris is batting .360-2-5 in 25 at bats for the Devil Rays. I've always believed that - given a chance - Harris would be an above average every day player.

Remember all those pitchers that Nats' fans wanted the team to sign? You know, those veterans who could have been signed for next-to-nothing, guys who would have been better than who we ended up with? Well, Tomo Ohka is 0-2, 7.02. Jeff Weaver is 0-3, 13.91. Steve Trachsel is 0-1, 5.19. These guys (and others) might have looked good in the starting rotation, and their additional cost might have convinced some of the team's fair-weather fans that the Lerners will indeed spend their money on players, but the team wouldn't really have been any better. Further, we're learning things about our starters that would have gone unnoticed had they been buried in the bullpen or demoted to Columbus. Matt Chico has shown, for example, that he has the talent to win at the major league level (though he's also shown that he's just as likely to get hit hard at this stage of his career).

The Nationals are going to win 65 games this year, maybe more if Alex Escobar, Nick Johnson, Nook Logan, Cristian Guzman and Luis Ayala come back sometime soon. With their additions, the Nationals will either trade away some of the veterans (Belliard, Guzman) for prospects or create a team with a very deep bench. There isn't much talent in the minor league system, but within the lumps of coals are a few diamonds in the rough.

Stay the course.

Around The Minors: Kory Casto, who looked lost in his brief stay with the Nationals, went 2-4 last night for Columbus and his his 2nd homer since being demoted. I was one many who believed that Casto didn't need any time in 'AAA' and was ready to start in left for the Nationals this year. Oops ..... Joel Hanrahan, who Bill Ladson said in our interview earlier this year that could become a pretty decent starting pitcher, pitched 5 innings of shutout ball last night, allowing just 2 hits while striking out 5. His ERA is now just 1.69. How much longer will Jerome Williams keep getting clobbered in Washington while Hanrahan dominates the International League before "something" happens? ..... Josh Whitesell, starting his second year with Harrisburg, hit his 4th homer last night and is now batting .348. If Larry Broadway doesn't start hitting soon (.173, .648 OPS), Whitesell just might find himself a Clipper .... John Lannan is easily the Nationals' best minor league pitcher this year, and yet I don't remember him at all from last year. Lannan, who went 6-8, 4.76 for Savannah last year, is now 3-0, 0.47 for Potomac. In 19 innings, he's allowed just 10 hits and struck out 13 while walking just 2 batters. A few more quality starts and he just might find himself in Harrisburg .... Perhaps the biggest surprise this year is Mike Daniel, who is Hagerstown's best hitter. Daniel, who batted .249 for Vermont and Savannah last year, is batting .317-5-18 with 4 steals. The 22 year old is on pace to hit 40 homers and drive in 135 runs while garnering 30 stolen bases.

# posted by Farid Rushdi @ 6:40 PM 1 comments