[March 26th] -- One of the benefits of being old(er) is all those years of watching, and loving, the game of baseball. The back of my closest is filled with one pile after another of baseball magazines and almanacs dating back to the mid 1950's (pre 1964 were gifts -- I'm not that old).

I was heading to the bathroom a couple of days ago, and so I grabbed the magazine on the top of the pile to keep me company. Age, and speedy bathroom visits, don't go hand-in-hand, don't you know.

I opened the 1992 Sporting News Baseball Yearbook randomly and came upon the preview of the Cleveland Indians, written by Sheldon Ocker of the Akron Beacon Journal.

Tell me if this sounds vaguely familiar:

"By making the bottom line a top priority, the Cleveland Indians almost dropped out of sight in the American League last year (1992 for the Indians, 2007 for the Nationals).

But even though Cleveland lost a franchise-record 105 games en route to finishing in last place in 1991, owners Dick and Dave Jacobs are determined to stay the course (how many times have we heard that phrase, 'stay the course?').

Stifling large salaries remains the goal for the Tribe as they try to build a competitive club by collecting young, promising players, but will it work?

The Indians began last season with a payroll of less than $19 million, among the lowest in the big leagues. But that figure wasn't low enough to suit Tribe officials.

Consequently, when all contract are settled, the total compensation for Cleveland's 25 players in 1992 will likely be around $7 million; the last time the Indians' payroll was that small was 1987 (The Nationals' payroll will drop from about $65 million to $40 million, perhaps even less).

'I'm not going to Band-Aid this team,' General Manager John Hart said. "We don't want journeymen free agents who are going to get in the way of the development of younger players we already have in place" (I've heard Stan Kasten say this, almost word for word).

Hart spent the winter trying to fill holes in the rotation, the bullpen and centerfield. To a fault, he followed a policy of obtaining inexpensive players with most of their careers in front of them.

So, just how young and economical will the Indians be in '92? Well, Cleveland will start the season with no regular position player and no starting pitcher older than 29 (as would the Nationals had Nick Johnson not been injured & with Jason Simontacchi's injury).

ROTATION: "If Cleveland is to improve in the standings, a woefully inexperienced group of starting pitchers will have to develop quickly" (Their starting five, Nagy, Armstrong, Scudder, Otton and Cook, were just as young, and inexperienced, as the Nationals' projected starting five).

BULLPEN: No matter what uncertainties the Indians faced last year, they figured they could count on their bullpen including Doug Jones, who amassed 112 saves over the three previous years (can you say Chad Cordero?)

OUTFIELD: After watching last year's misadventures in centerfield, Hart reacted with great excitement when he acquired Kenny Loften from Houston. Lofton has impeccable credentials and is a terrific athlete (though Nook Logan isn't as good a player as Loften was, he nonetheless brings with him the same type of tools)."

I was stunned at the similarities between the 1991 Indians and the 2007 Washington Nationals. Forget the journeyman free agents, stick with the kids and take your lumps for a couple of years.

How'd Cleveland do?

After losing 105 games in '92 (the Nationals' 2007), the went 76-86 in 1992 and 1993. They had a record of 66-47 in 1994's strike shortened season (they were in second place at the time, just a game behind the White Sox). The Indians' blossomed in 1995, going 100-44 and making it to the World Series, losing to the Atlanta Braves in six games. They won their division six out of the next seven years, returning to the Word Series in 1997 (losing to the Florida Marlins). After a sub-par 2002, the team rebuilt yet again and limped home in '03 with a 68-94 record. Once again, the young kids matured, and once again, the team got better, winning 80 games in 2004 and 93 in 2005.

As I said, the similarities are remarkable. There is no guarantee that by following the Indians' lead, the Washington Nationals will be a dominant force in the coming years. However, neither is loading a team up with high-priced, high-talented free agents; Just ask the New York Mets how they did with Mo Vaughn's recruiting class a few year's back.

That said, once again I say to Stan and Jim and Manny: Stay the course. John Hart proved it could be done, and done quickly.

# posted by Farid Rushdi @ 3:23 PM 5 comments

[March 24th] -- For the umpteenth time, spring training stats and standings are meaningless.

That said ....

With a week of spring training remaining, the Nationals have already won more games this year than last, and they have done it without Jose Guillen, Jose Vidro, Tony Armas Jr, Pedro Astacio and Ramon Ortiz.

Could it be that they're doing better this spring because those guys aren't around any more?

An article was published the other day portraying team president Stan Kasten as being "miffed" that reporters are predicting "doom-n-gloom" for the 2007 Nationals. "What are they seeing that I'm not?" asked Kasten.

Well, I see it. I'm just not sure I believe it. The team's offense will likely be better than last year. Although Alfonso Sorinao is long gone, it is expected that several players, Brian Schneider, Cristian Guzman, Austin Kearns and Nook Logan, will be better than the players they've replaced who were on the opening day squad. The bench, and the relief corps, are still the strengths of this team.

So it all comes down to the starting pitching. If they pitch well, the team can make a run at .500. Oh no, they won't get there, but they'll come close. 76 wins? 78? Granted that's going to take some doing. Not only is John Patterson, Shawn Hill and Jerome Williams going to have to pitch well all season, the Nats would then have to get all that Jason Simontacchi and Matt Chico have to give (or Levale Speigner). However, if it's just Patterson and only one of the Nationals' version of the "Dirty Dozen" who come through, then it's going to be difficult to reach 67 wins.

But really, it doesn't matter if it's 65 or 75 or 85 games won this season. It's kind of like buying to model car kit and, when sitting down to put it together, not seeing the hundreds of faceless parts, but rather what they'll look like when everything fits together perfectly. The Nationals are at the "parts laying on the desk" level. Before long, we'll have the chassis together and begin to install the front seats and the dash board. Soon, we'll be painting the body a fire red with blue and gold interior trim. When the finished product goes on our shelf, we'll likely forget what it looked like before we started.

Part of the sense of ownership in a team is watching it be built. "I remember when ..." we say to the comers-on. "I remember when Brian Schneider was the catcher. He was pretty good, but nothing like Jesus Flores. And Nick Johnson was great, but he was always hurt. Chris Marrero hasn't missed a game in two years.

Like that.

Enjoy putting your model together. Just be careful not to sniff the glue, or you might think you're watching the '27 Yankees.

# posted by Farid Rushdi @ 4:26 PM 0 comments

[March 23rd] -- Spring statistics - and standings - are meaningless. Take that to the bank. It wasn't too long ago, after all, that the Kansas City Royals had the best record in spring training and the worst record during the regular season. But now that the regulars are playing most of the time, we're beginning to get a better idea of just how good (or bad) this team is really going to be. However, after watching Buster Olney (on ESPN 2's Cold Pizza) say that major league baseball scouts were having their own "Final Four," trying to guess how many games the Nationals would lose in 2007, I have to defend my team. The high mark, by the way, was 130. Losses. Incredible.

Memo to Buster and the scouts: The Nationals aren't going to be that bad.

The Nationals' 16-2 rout of the Houston Astros on Thursday went a long way to answering many of the questions that have plagued Nats' fans since the beginning of spring training. Certainly, there are areas of concern, but on the whole, most positions are more solid than scary:

First base: Travis Lee and Dmitri Young are more likely going to platoon until Nick Johnson returns. Assuming that Johnson returns somewhere near mid-season, I think the team can count on one/the other/both to hit somewhere near .265-12-45 over 80 or so games. Those aren't all star numbers to be sure, but neither are they particularly embarrassing. When Nick returns, one/both can be traded for more prospects (though I haven't changed my tune; Broadway shouldn't have gotten the job)

Second base: Felipe Lopez was going to hit; it was only a matter of time. He went 2-3 with a couple of RBI's against the Astros and raised his average to .214. By the end of the season, Lopez is going to hit .275-14-50 with 45 stolen bases.

Short: I'm looking at the box score from last night's game and I see that Cristian Guzman went 3-4 and raised his spring average to .414. Might the brand new shoulder and "never been used" eyeballs really be making that much of a difference? No way. Guzman is currently sporting a .469 OBP - that's luck, not talent. But, extrapolated over an entire season, Guzman is on pace to walk 40 times and strikeout 80, both numbers are near his career average. What I think we're seeing is a guy who is 1) desperately trying to show he's worth his contract and 2) playing better because he's feeling better.

Third base: Need I say anything? If Zimmerman could hit this way over a full season, he'd end up with 70 doubles, 24 homers, 144 RBI's, and most importantly, only 80 strikeouts. He said he wanted to reduce his strikeouts this year, and - so far at least - he has. Astros' play-by-play announcer Milo Hamilton said that Zimmerman "is as good a fielding 3rd baseman as has ever played in the major leagues, ever." Strong words from a guy who's been broadcasting baseball for decades.

Left-field: I've never understood why everyone has been fawing over Chris Snelling this spring, and am puzzled why Jim Bowden would suggest that he could end up the team's starting left fielder come opening day. Snelling is batting .257 with 3 homers and 12 RBI's. The 3 home runs are nice, but remember, he hit two of them into that 30 mph jet stream last weekend. Pop-ups were landing on the warning track that day. I love watching him play, but there is no way he'll ever come close to producing like Ryan Church can/will. Church went 3-5 on Thursday with a long home run and 5 RBI's. If given the opportunity, Ryan will hit around .280 with 20 homers and 80 RBI's. Snelling will never approach those numbers. Some players are destined to be regulars, others are better suited at coming off the bench and providing a "spark." That's Snelling. Call him "Sparky."

Center-field: Nook Logan. That's all I have to say about that.

Right-field: Austin Kearns was the only starter not to get a hit last night. That said, he's still hitting .289 and is a lock for a .270-24-95 type season. I wish that he hit right-handers better than he does (.243 in '05, .257 in '06), but he still change the game with one swing of his bat.

Catcher: Brian Schneider is a known commodity, but we've all been worried about a 22 year old catcher right out of 'A' ball being his backup. So far, he looks every bit as good as Jim Bowden and Manny Acta said he'd be. He got 3 hits against the Astros including his first home run. His OPS is a mind-boggling 1.373. The pitchers will learn how to pitch to him, and he'll probably end the year with humbling numbers, but he's shown he has the talent to be a solid major leaguer.

Starting Rotation: Okay, this is where it gets tough. Right now, John Patterson, Jason Simontacchi (when he's healthy), Shawn Hill, Matt Chico and Jerome Williams or Levale Speigner will make make up the starting rotation. By season's end, they could surprise and be rather good, or they could stink. No one knows at this point. Patterson has the talent to win 15 games, Hill, Chico, Simontacchi and either Williams or Speigner can win 10 games apeice. That's not a division winning rotation, but neither are they going to lock the bathroom door and refuse to come out when it's their turn to pitch.

By the way, the pitcher that most impressed Milo Hamilton was Speigner, who allowed just two hits over three innings. Over 11.2 innings, he's yet to allow a run and has given up just 6 hits. I can't imagine that Manny wouldn't prefer to have him in the rotation rather than the bullpen.

I'm not suggesting that the Nationals are going to approach a .500 record, but neither are they going to embarrass themselves. I think the team will win somewhere between 65-75 games, probably ending 2007 like they did 2006, with 71 wins.

Sorry Buster, sorry Cold Pizza -- we're not going to be your whipping boys. 2007 isn't going to be as painful as you think.

Notes: It looks like Garrett Mock won't be able to play for 'AA' Harrisburg until May because his knee - repaired last fall - is still causing him discomfort.

# posted by Farid Rushdi @ 8:07 PM 0 comments

[March 21st] -- Around the league, they're giggling in public and belly-laughing in the clubhouse. The subject of all the guffaws?

Why, the Nationals starting rotation, of course.

Manny Acta has only two more weeks to figure out which five pitchers give the Nationals their best chance of not making total fools of themselves this year. Thus far, John Patterson and Shawn Hill are locks while Jason Simontacchi and Matt Chico are the rotation's "unindicted co-conspirators." With Beltran Perez and Billy Traber now battling for a spot in the bullpen, there are five pitchers vying for the final spot in the rotation: Jerome Williams, Jason Bergman, Joel Hanrahan, Tim Redding and Levale Speigner.

My vote goes to Speigner.

That doesn't mean that I think that he's the best talent, or that he deserves the opportunity more than the other guys; he isn't and he doesn't. But he's a lot like the vacation days I accrue at work every year: use 'em or lose 'em. Because Speigner, like Jesus Flores, was a Rule V draftee, he has to remain on the major league roster for the entire season or risk offering him back to his original team, the Minnesota Twins, for half the price the Nationals paid.

Take a look at the career stats of the five finalists. I've always believed that baserunners per 9 innings (hits + walks) is the stat that best measures a pitchers long term viability. Strikeouts are nice and a low ERA is nice. But if the opposing team can't get on base, then they aren't going to score:

• Levale Speigner:__(minors) 21-21, 3.34_____BR per 9-10.7____K/9-6.5
• Jerome Williams:__(minors) 34-39, 3.79____BR per 9-12.7____K/9-6.4
  ______________(__(majors) 23-24, 4.03_____BR per 9-12.2____K/9-5.3
• Joel Hanrahan____(minors) 62-45, 4.23_____BR per 9-12.9____K/9-5.5
• Tim Redding_____(majors) 21-34, 5.16_____BR per 9-13.8____K/9-6.3
• Jason Bergmann__(minors) 32-30, 3.42_____BR per 9-11.9____K/9-7.9

Joel Hanrahan's 62-45 minor league record is at first glance very impressive. However, his 4.23 ERA was the worst (when comparing minor league stats) as was his strikeouts per 9 innings. Hanrahan allowed nearly 13 baserunners per 9 innings, next to last among the five.

Levale Speigner's 21-21 record doesn't seem particularly impressive until you take a deeper look at his record. His 3.34 ERA was by far the best, as was his 10.7 baserunners per 9 innings. His 6.5 strikeouts per 9 innings was bettered only by Bergmann's 7.9. Speigner's pristine spring stats reflects his career minor league numbers. In 8.2 innings, he's yet to give up a run, and is allowing just 4.1 baserunners per 9 innings.

It's interesting that Speigner has been given the opportunity to win a place in the rotation (though it is questionable if he's getting the same opportunity as Redding and Williams). Although he was a starter at Auburn University, he's been a starter only once as a professional, in 2005 with New Britain of the 'AA' Eastern League. He went 6-10, 4.13, allowing 11 baserunners per 9 innings.

Based on what I've seen so far, Tim Redding and Joel Hanrahan (both have a 12.71 ERA) don't have much of a chance to make the rotation (though they could be the first to be recalled from Columbus later in the year). Bergmann's only success as a starter came in a handful of starts late in the 2005 season. Other than Speigner, Jerome Williams is the only other guy who has any real hope of making the club (and that hope is based on on just one good outing out of three).

I'd be content with Williams in the rotation, but based on his spring numbers, and based on the fact that he'll never make it back to Columbus (Minnesota would certainly reclaim him), Levale Speigner should be the #5 guy in the rotation.

If Jesus Flores and Speigner have solid years in 2007, Jim Bowden will look like a genious.

Here's hoping.

The Columbus rotation gets stronger (kind of): Most major league team's 'AAA' farm club is stocked with the best and the brightest, players just weeks or months away from making an impact at the major league level. On most nights, you can't throw a frisbee onto to the field at an International or Pacific League park without knocking down a "can't miss" prospects.

Not in Columbus.

The 2007 Clippers will have at the most one or two prospects, and even they won't have much of a chance in Washington. In reality, the 2007 Clipper roster are full of players filling out uniforms, waiting for the hot-shots from Harrisburg and Potomac to earn their way there. Larry Broadway - or so it appears anyway - has had his prospect key chain taken away from him; he is merely keep the uniform warm. Kory Casto may end up there, but maybe not.

Perhaps the Clippers rotation says it best. The starters will likely include Tim Redding, Joel Hanrahan, Jason Bergmann and Saul Rivera. And now, welcome Pedro Astacio. Astacio, 37, a complete bust with the Nationals last season, has been signed to a minor league contract and will join 'AAA' most "mature" rotation.

One or two of them will without question be called up to take the place of a struggling starter at some point during the season. Who will it be, and will they help? I still think that Redding and Hanrahan could still become adequate major league starters. And Astacio? Well, the can be counted on to give up six runs a game anytime he's needed.

# posted by Farid Rushdi @ 8:43 PM 1 comments

[March 20th] -- I love Chris Snelling. Every team needs a player who plays well above his talent level, one of those guys who runs through walls without any thought to his career (and seven knee operations later, it shows with Snelling). And under most circumstances, I wouldn't have a problem with him beating out Ryan Church and winning the left-field job, but this isn't "most circumstances."

It involves Ryan Church, it involves a knee that really isn't a knee anymore, and it involves a promise that needs to be kept.

Throughout Spring Training, Nationals' beat reporters have described Chris Snelling's health as "as good as it's ever going to be," meaning that while he's 100%, 100% for Chris Snelling is 70% for any other professional athlete. I've had multiple surgeries on my knees as well, and regardless of what anyone says, each surgery takes something away. You slow down. Your reflexes are reduced. Pain becomes an every-day occurrence. I'm not so sure I want my starting left-fielder to be in the mold of Alex Escobar, i.e., a guy who never met an injury he didn't like. I mean, what's the chance that a guy who hasn't been able to play everyday for five years all of a suddenly finds the magic elixer and plays 160 games? Snelling would be an excellent 4th outfielder, or he'd make a tremendous half of a platoon. Come to think of it, a Snelling/Escobar platoon would make a lot of sense in the Nationals' outfield; neither of them would play enough to run the risk of wearing down and being on the DL by July.

The other problem is "the promise." Since the early days of the Acta administration, Manny was clear: Nook Logan is the team's starting center-fielder and Ryan Church is a fixture in left.

Period.

Enter Jim Bowden, who suggested that Snelling's excellent spring play has muddled the situation in left. What did Acta say when asked about Bowden's remark? "He's still the guy .... I think."

My guess is - for a while at least - that Church's frontal lobe was going to explode.

Today, however, both general manager and manager say they are on the same page regarding Ryan Church. I hope so. I can forgive bad decisions made in good faith, but for the team to go back on their word because a player had a better spring than expected? Not a good sign. Granted, Snelling is batting .310 with an impressive 1.122 OPS. He leads the club with three homers and eleven RBI's. Big numbers, but a small sample size. Twenty-nine at-bats means nothing, especially considering the guy has a career .237 batting average in 152 at-bats. Ryan Church, on the other hand, is batting just .175 in 40 at-bats yet he has a .269 career average in 527 at-bats. Snelling has yet to hit at the major league level, Church has, and yet Bowden was suggesting that the past three years of statistics for both players were meaningless when compared to Snelling's twelve spring games.

Acta believes in giving his players confidence by not forcing them to compete while Bowden believes that publicly questioning his players motivates them. Shame on Manny if he didn't mean what he said, and shame on Bowden for playing with Church's head, especially since Ryan has showed that these type of management mind-games backfires every time.

Of course, all of this would be moot if Church would only start to hit. Why he fiddled with his batting stance this spring is beyond me; the last thing Ryan needed was another poor start to another season. That said, I've never understood, and I guess I never will, how a player's future can be determined by 30 or 40 at-bats in spring training. Every player goes through an 0-15 or a 2-25 sometime during the season. You're okay if it happens in July but screwed big-time if happens in March.

Chris Snelling has proven nothing at the major league level. Hopefully, one day he'll be an integral part of the Nationals' outfield, but there is nothing tangible in his background to suggest that at this point. Ryan Church, on the other hand, has proven that if people would just leave him alone and put him in the outfield, he will succeed. His career numbers prove it. With 527 major league at-bats (a typical full season in the major leagues), Church has a .269 average along with 33 doubles, 4 triples, 20 homers and 83 RBI's to go along with a .808 OPS.

The Nationals aren't willing to give up on that kind of production based on forty at-bats, are they?

Are they?

# posted by Farid Rushdi @ 8:40 PM 5 comments

[March 18th] -- Oh brother.

The Nationals announced on Sunday that, "oh by the way, we've given up on Larry Broadway yet again and will go with one of two grizzled vets - perhaps both - at first base this year."

Were the Nationals fighting for a playoff spot in 2007, then sure, I could understand their reluctance to give the keys to first base to Broadway, who at age 26 still doesn't have a major league at-bat. But the only fight in the Nationals this year is in their attempt not to break the 1962 Mets all-time record for most losses in a season.

Why trade away Livan Hernandez and Jose Vidro, and not resign Alfonso Soriano and Jose Guillen and Tony Armas and Ramon Ortiz in the name of getting younger only to give two other veterans the chance to play first, beating out the very type of player the Nationals were counting on this year?

Jim Bowden and Manny Acta said that Broadway's .333 spring didn't include enough power, and that they are looking to find it in either Lee, or Young, or both.

Right.

Broadway has averaged a homerun every 23 at-bats during his minor league career. Dmitri Young, 33, averaged one homer every 39 at-bats during his time in the minors, and one homer every 26 at-bats with the Cardinals, Reds and Tigers. Travis Lee, 32, a "can't miss" prospect who did, averages a homer every 32 at-bats. Young hit 29 homers once with the Tigers, but his second highest number was just 21. Lee's high-water mark was 22, during his first year with the Diamondbacks nearly a decade ago.

So, Dmitri Young has below-average power for a major league first baseman, as does Travis Lee. Same with Larry Broadway. So why does Larry Broadway get sent down and the other two stay? I can only guess that when Nick Johnson returns sometime in mid-season, Bowden is intent on trading Young, or Lee for prospects. Broadway (I'm guessing) would bring less in return.

It just doesn't make sense. I can only assume that Larry Broadway has now lost his chance to play in the major leagues, at least with the Washington Nationals. He is too old to be considered a real prospect anymore. The Nationals - with Johnson signed for another three seasons - doesn't want him in D.C. and other teams don't see him as a prospect any longer.

He's screwed.

I could have rooted for a singles-hitting Broadway, but how do I root for a couple of guys that no one else wanted, guys who will be gone the moment Nick Johnson returns to the Nationals?

I haven't been this worked up since Bowden sent Ryan Church to the minors last spring.

Once a year. Like clockwork. Ah Jimbo, this just doesn't make any sense.

Thanks. I'm much better now.

# posted by Farid Rushdi @ 9:50 AM 5 comments

[March 17th] -- I'm returning (for a day at least) from my self-imposed exile; I can only go so many days without blogging before withdrawals set in.

So, how are all the former Nationals doing so far this spring? Remember, the sample size is still relatively small, but I think we can begin to get an idea as to how their new teams are beginning to see them.

And for the most part, they're making Jim Bowden look stupid.

The Mariners must be feeling mighty happy about now. In two separate transactions, they acquired Jose Vidro and Jose Guillen and gave up Chris Snelling and Emiliano Fruto. Fruto was sent to the minor league camp a couple of days ago while Chris Snelling is solidifying his position as the team's fourth outfielder (depending, of course, on Alex Escobar's health). Vidro and Guillen, on the other hand, are tearing up the Cactus league. Vidro, not having to worry about the wear-and-tear on his knees any more, is batting .353 with 7 RBI's. Guillen - healthy for the first time in more than a year - is hitting .316-1-3 with a solid .952 OPS.

It appears that Bowden made two big mistakes here. I said it appears that he made two big mistakes. Vidro always starts the year off gang-busters before inertia, and gravity, and father time, take their toll. He'll certainly end up having a good enough year, say .285-12-80, but those aren't very good numbers when you consider the cost of his contract and the fact that he can no longer play defense. And a healthy Guillen will probably hit .285-25-100, but is that type of production worth the devastation he'll wreak in the clubhouse? I say no.

I'm very happy that the Jose's are where they are, and in five years, both Jose's will be out of major league baseball while Chris Snelling will be 30 and Emilano Fruto 27.

Perhaps the most surprising spring stats belong to Ramon Ortiz. In 12 innings, the diminutive right-hander has given up just 8 hits and 1 walk while striking out 10. He has a near perfect 0.75 ERA. I'm sure Twins' fans are thinking now that Ramon Ortiz has worked out the kinks in his game and that they'll ride their newly found stud to the playoffs.

Not a chance. There is a reason that Ramon Ortiz has a career 4.85 ERA and is playing with his fourth team in four years. He's just not very good. All he's done thus far is guarantee his place in the Twins' starting rotation. That said, I seriously doubt he'll still be there come the all-star break. Teams like the Twins, teams who contend for a playoff spot year in and year out, can't afford someone like Ortiz in the rotation. I can't predict when it will happen, but trust me, it will happen. He'll be in the bullpen before the end of the year.

Another bad pitcher doing well this spring in Tony Armas Jr. The Pirates' gamble seems to paying off, at least initially. Armas is 1-0 with an ERA of 2.00 so far this spring. Of all the Nationals' pitchers, Armas is the one who gave me the most heartburn. He looked at times almost afraid to throw the ball. Of course, when he finally did, it became obvious why he was afraid: he knew he couldn't get anybody out. I'm very happy he's gone.

Marlon Byrd is doing well with the Rangers, hitting .367-1-8 with a .929 OPS. Good for him. He certainly has the talent to be an everyday major leaguer. Perhaps he'll follow Endy Chavez' lead and turn his career around. That said, I'm very happy with Snelling as our fourth outfielder instead of Byrd.

Royce Clayton is hitting .174-0-3, .425 OPS with the Blue Jays. I think his tank is finally empty. Matt LeCroy (still one of my favorite players) is batting .241 with a .663 OPS with the Twins, which is probably not enough to make the team. Brandon Watson is at .231, .390 OPS with the Tigers. Pedro Astacio, Ryan Drese and Zach Day are nowhere to be found, at least for now.

No doubt, some former Nationals are doing pretty well so far this spring, but please, Tony Armas, Ramon Ortiz and Marlon Byrd aren't going to continue to play at their current level. In the short term, the Nationals will miss most of these players, but in the long term, they are going to be a much better team.

# posted by Farid Rushdi @ 7:41 AM 0 comments

[March 7th] -- Wins and losses don't mean a thing this early in spring training. And the veterans, well, their numbers mean less. They can turn it on when they need to. But the majority of players don't have the luxury of playing poorly and still being in the opening day lineup. And with so many players fighting for so few positions, cuts will be coming very soon. That means that many of the guys will lose their chance to play with the big club based on 20 or so at-bats, 10 or so innings. And that's so not-fair. Ichiro Suzuki went 1-25 during one stretch last year, and no one remembers that. But let Mike Restovich go 1-25 this spring, and he's looking at a plane ticket to Columbus.

If Nook Logan stays cold, Manny Acta might have some 'splaining to do. Will he open with a center-fielder that's batting .083 (something that will get the fans howling), or does he go back on his word about Logan being "the man" and put Ryan Church or someone else out there? Nook is creating a lose-lose situation for the first year manager.

Is Cristian Guzman's relative lack of playing time thus far (0-5 in 2 games) a sign that his shoulder is still not healthy? My guess is that is if he could go, he would go. And he hasn't seen an inning in the field yet. There is no question that Guzman is the best defensive shortstop on the team, but at some point, Manny would have to consider moving Felipe Lopez back to short and starting Ronnie Belliard at second. There is nothing wrong with that scenario, except the fact that Belliard isn't hitting much better than Guzman. Thus far, the former Cardinal is batting .111 (1-9). It's not that those nine at-bats are indicative of his abilities, but it makes it much harder for Manny to pull the trigger on rearranging the infield.

Brian Schneider, who hit a home run on Tuesday and drove in four runs, credits Mitchell Page for adjusting his stance and giving him a quicker swing. I've always believed Brian has .275-15-70 ability, but his inconsistency - those 3 for 40 streaks - has kept him away from being an everyday threat. On the other side of the coin, Tim Redding is blaming Randy St. Claire for his poor start. It seems St. Claire's "tinkering" has made him feel less comfortable on the mound. Funny, but it wasn't St. Claire that repositioned Ryan Wagner's arm angle and resurrected his career?

Larry Broadway is still hitting .375, but all his hits have been singles. Travis Lee got into his first real game on Tuesday and doubled and drove in two runs. Broadway will likely get the starting nod at first if he keeps his batting average respectable, but he won't keep it if he doesn't start to show some power.

Mike Restovich is playing himself out of a reserve outfield role. He is 0-7 with 3 strikeouts. His job - if he earns it - would be to come off the bench with power and fill in occasionally in the outfield. As of yet, he hasn't shown he can do it. He just may be that 'AAAA' player who can't hit major league pitching.

Emilano Fruto is falling into the "fool me twice, shame on me" category. Another 1.2 innings, another 2 runs on two homers. There is no question that the guy has superb stuff, so why the 23.14 ERA? I don't know. I thought he was a lock to make the bullpen. One more bad outing will all but guarantee his beginning the year at Columbus.

# posted by Farid Rushdi @ 8:21 PM 0 comments

[March 5th] -- It only took three games for the Nationals to win their first game of the spring, and it took only a few more minutes after that before they lost again, running their record to 1-3. Ah, the perils of split-squads.

Though I wrote last week that three innings here, four at-bats there shouldn't make or break a player's chance to make the opening day roster, they do. And though - in the long run - four games worth of statistics are meaningless, decisions are already being made within the organization as to who is, and isn't going to be around come April based on these first four games.

Happy Campers:

• Larry Broadway: .375, though his three hits are all singles and he's struck out 3 times
• Ryan Zimmerman: He went 2-3 on Sunday and saw his average drop to .750. Now that's good.
• Alex Escobar: .429 with an RBI as a DH
• Jesus Flores: .667 in 3 at-bats
• Matt Chico: 0.00 in three innings, allowing only 1 hit while striking out 2. He only faced 2 regulars, but he was sharp nonetheless
• Billy Traber: 0.00 in 2.2 innings, giving up 3 hits and striking out 3. I think his place on this team is as a lefty reliever brought into the game to get a lefty out.
• Jason Bergman: No runs allowed in 2 innings (he doesn't have a chance to win a starting job though -- too many people in front of him)
• Shawn Hill: 2 innings, 2 hits, no runs. He's got to be a lock unless he gets creamed in one of his spring outings (kind of like Joel Hanrahan)

Bad Boys:

• Nook Logan: You don't want to be a fleet-footed centerfielder on this team and come out of the gates cold. Logan has; he's 0-7 so far
• Ryan Church: A 1-7 start (.143) has got to have Church worried, especially after what happened last spring. That said, I still think he's "the guy" in left and that he's going to hit 20 homers this year (unless he gets demoted to Columbus that is)
• Cristian Guzman: I don't want to hear any "I told you so's." Gooz is 0-5 with 2 strikeouts, and several reporters continue to hint that his shoulder isn't anywhere near being ready.
• Mike Restovich: I thought he'd be a great power bat off the bench for the Nationals. If that's going to happen, he's going to have to start hitting; he's 0-5 with a couple of strikeouts
• Joel Hanranan: Luckily for Emiliano Fruto, Joel Hanrahan is in camp. Fruto's 54.00 ERA looks downright unhittable compared to the former Dodger's 135.00 ERA. That said, he's much better than that and still has a chance to make the rotation (though one less-than-dazzling outing will likely send him to Columbus)
• Emilano Fruto: One outing does not a ticket to Columbus bring, but everything he did wrong he did wrong last year in Seattle as well. Not a good sign.
• Chris Schroeder: His grandmother had just died before he got torched. I want to see another outing before I say anything more about him.

There are several players who have played very well so far, but they don't have a chance to make the team, so it's the "if a tree falls in the forest and no one heard it, did it make a sound?" scenario.

Matt Chico was impressive, and I'm beginning to believe that a Livan Hernandez for Matt Chico trade straight up wouldn't have been a bad trade at all. I have had a chance to watch him pitch, and the comparisons to Mike Hampton are fair. I'd rather him start the year at Columbus and give some of the question-marks a chance to make it (or not), but Manny might have no alternative but to bring him north if he keeps impressing.

# posted by Farid Rushdi @ 8:36 PM 0 comments

[March 4th] -- Yes, it's still early, but a win would be nice anytime now. Yes, the games are meaningless, but a win would be nice anytime now.

I'm afraid there were fewer positives to consider this game. Ryan Zimmerman went 2-2 and is now batting .800 for the spring. He also - perhaps - will have a long term deal by this afternoon. Jesus Flores got another hit, and Kory Casto got his first hit of the year. But Mike Restovich looked bad striking out, as did Larry Broadway, who swung at a pitch so far outside that it took a good play by the catcher to snare it.

John Patterson pitched well, allowing a run in 2 innings of work (though the 3 hits he gave up weren't hit very hard). By the way, I like his clean shaven look this spring compared to his "shaggy" appearance for much of last season. Saul Rivera, Jon Rauch, Ray King and Billy Traber combined to pitch 5.2 innings of shutout ball. Ryan Wagner didn't look too sharp in the 9th, and Joel Hanrahan looked downright horrid in his 1/3rd of an inning, giving up 3 hits and 5 runs. I don't care if it was only the second game of the spring ... an ERA of 135.00 is hard to explain away.

I wonder how Hanrahan must have felt after leaving the mound yesterday afternoon. He signs as a free agent last winter and was promised a fair shot at making the starting rotation. He works out all winter, prepares the best he can, and is given his chance in just the team's second game.

And then he blows it. Big time. I don't see how he can be feeling "okay" this morning. With a dozen hopefuls for four slots, his chances had to go from slim to almost none.

# posted by Farid Rushdi @ 9:59 PM 0 comments

[March 3rd] -- Shortly after the Nationals' first exibition game, messages began to appear on team bulletin boards that took a poke-in-the-ribs, tongue-in-the-cheek swipe at "the plan," as in "Gee, the plan seems to be working."

Well, when I can't identify seven of the names in the box score, I'd say that the game wasn't a real representation of what the team can do.

And, it was the first game of the spring, for crying out loud.

I would have much preferred a 12-7 win, but really, it didn't matter. This was the Dodger's second game and the Nationals' first, and it showed. They'll get better.

Observations from the game:
First, take a look at this picture of Shawn Hill. Thank goodness that this is a spring-only uniform that won't be used in play once the regular season starts. I've been waiting for two weeks now for that hat to grow on me, but it hasn't. And it won't. I still like the general design of the jersey, but the "W" seems too small and too low on the front. A number on the bottom left would certainly add to the overall look as well. Also, I do-not-like the team wearing their red batting helmets with the blue hats and jerseys. It looks tacky ..... Felipe Lopez played three innings and didn't make an error at second. He didn't get a hit either .... Ryan Zimmerman's mammoth home run to centerfield was aided by the wind, but it was going to get out anyway. I still worry about Zim having a sophomore slump, but I've got to say, his performance today allays some of those fears .... Jesus Flores got a hit in his first at-bat of the spring, and his first at-bat as a player guaranteed to make a major league roster; that's got to give him confidence .... Nook Logan's line score shows he went 0-3, but really, a bouncer to short was called an error on the Dodgers' Wilson Valdez, but he would have beaten it out even if he'd have fielded it cleanly .... When Ryan Church lined his double into right-center, Dodger's announcer Charlie Steiner said that he'd talked to several Nationals' coaches who told him that the team loves what Church has done this spring .... Chris Snelling had a g'day, going 1-1 and throwing out Andy LaRoche at the plate .... Manny Acta said it is time for catcher Brian Schneider to take charge behind the plate; was that before or after he chucked the ball into centerfield on a steal attempt in the first inning? .... Larry Broadway went 1-3 with a single, but he also grounded into an inning ending double-play in the second with a runner on third .... It was nice to see Alex Escobar get a hit as the DH -- I really think that he still has the potential to hit .300-25-100 if he can ever stay healthy .... D'Angelo Jimenez had an interesting day, going 2-2 with 2 errors .... in fact both starting shortstops, Jimenez and Wilson Valdez, had 2 hits and 2 errors .... The "official box score" lists the Nats' second 3rd baseman of the day as Kory Castro. Brother of Bernie?

The pitching was .... well .... off and on. Shawn Hill and Chris Michalak were on while everyone else was off. Hill pitched 2 innings, giving up 2 hits and no earned runs. Michalak gave up just one hit and a run in his two innings. Chris Schroeder gave up 3 runs in an inning, but to be fair, the guy had just lost his grandmother and was on a plane for home before the post-game interviews began. Luis Martinez, who Charley Steiner kept calling a "big, big man" gave up a run in his first game back from Japan. Jesus Colome - who wasn't good enough to remain with the Devil Rays - joined the one inning, one run club as well. The only real clinker in the group was Emiliano Fruto, who many (including me) believe is going to be a studly star one day soon. Fruto game up 4 runs in 2/3rds of an inning and has a 54.00 ERA going into tomorrow's game. His "rep" in Seattle was that he had great stuff, that he struck out a lot of batters while walking a lot of batters. Yep. He walked two and struck out two. Same ol' same ol', at least for now.

On the Dodger's side, former Oriole Larry Bigbie went 3-3 with two long homers. James Loney, who is a much better 1st baseman than Nomar Garciaparra, went 1-2 with 2 RBI's. And the pitching - save Mark Hendrickson - was outstanding. Hendrickson gave up 7 runs in 1.2 innings while the rest of the Dodgers' pitchers gave up just 6 hits and no runs in 7.1 innings.

Let's get back to Charlie Steiner for a moment. Now, I love the guy. Dating back to the late 1980's on ESPN, he's been my favorite baseball broadcaster, and his show on XM is can't miss radio. That said, I think the guy was snockered on Friday. His words were slurred and he kept getting the names of the players wrong. At one point, he had "Brian" Schroeder pitching to "Chris" Schneider. Huh?

The only negative - at least from my perspective - was the baserunning. It was shades of 2006 all over again. Just like last year, the Nationals are looking like bush-leaguers on the basepaths. In the name of "agressiveness," Nook Logan was thrown out at home and Alex Escobar was out at second trying to stretch a single. They just can't keep doing this.

Overall, it was a good first day.

# posted by Farid Rushdi @ 9:18 PM 0 comments